Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%
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Texas Senate Election Winner
The odds
65%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)65%▲ 2
- Ken Paxton (R)36%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
James Talarico (D): 62% on Oct 20, 65% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico (D) | 65% | ▲ 2 | 64¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | $2.7M |
| Ken Paxton (R) | 36% | ▼ 1 | 35¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | $3.8M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas Senate
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How Christianity Became a Battleground in the Texas Senate RaceOct 25, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are making Christianity a defining issue in the home stretch of Texas’ U.S. Senate race, offering sharply different visions of what faith should mean in… -
Texas early voting data trends, what analysts are focusing on in the Texas Senate raceCBS News Sunday Morning CBS News Bay Area Evening Edition 11pm WBZ This Morning 8am CBS News Chicago Sunday7am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 11pm WCCO News Sunday Morning 7am CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA… -
What analysts are watching in the Texas Senate race, CBS News political experts weigh inCBS News Sunday Morning CBS News Bay Area Evening Edition 11pm WBZ This Morning 8am CBS News Chicago Sunday7am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 11pm WCCO News Sunday Morning 7am CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA… -
CBS News political experts weigh in on Texas Senate race halfway through early votingOctober 25, 2026 / 6:00 AM CDT / CBS Texas With the early voting period halfway over and Election Day looming, the candidates for U.S. Senate in Texas continue to cross the state to get their supporters to the polls. Both the Democratic… -
Paxton, Talarico Battle in Competitive Texas Senate RaceDALLAS—A Democrat hasn’t won a Texas Senate race in decades. In these midterms, some feel that could change. Amid a fractious election cycle midway through the second Trump administration, early in-person voting is already underway in the… -
Talarico Takes Aim At Musk In Texas Senate FightJames Talarico is sharpening his attack on Elon Musk as the Texas Senate race tightens, turning the billionaire into one of the clearest targets in his campaign against Republican Ken Paxton. The Democratic nominee has increasingly framed… -
Libertarian Texas Senate Candidate says US needs alternatives for political parties | The Hill SundayLibertarian Texas Senate Candidate Ted Brown joined NewsNation, saying that the U.S. needs alternatives when it comes to political parties. An amber wind warning will remain until Sunday evening as severe weather continues to batter the… -
Trump to campaign in Lubbock and Corpus Christi as Texas Senate race tightensSAN ANTONIO, TEXAS - OCTOBER 7: The crowd cheers as President Donald Trump dances to "Y.M.C.A." before leaving the stage at the end of a political rally at Freeman Coliseum in San Antonio, Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026. (Sam Owens/San Antonio… -
Cornyn voters become key prize in Texas Senate raceDemocratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, rivals in the Senate race. They lost their candidate. Now they could help decide who wins. Republicans who backed John Cornyn in his bitter Senate primary… -
Midterm Numbers Show Sharp Rural Turn Against Trump As Texas Senate Race Holds SteadyWith less than two weeks until the midterm elections, new polling data highlights substantial political shifts across key battlegrounds, led by declining support for President Donald Trump in rural areas and durable Democratic margins in… -
Rain chances return to DFW this weekCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Rain chances return to DFW… -
Dallas Drummathon raises $55,000 for breast cancer researchCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Dallas Drummathon raises…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions