Party to control the US Senate in 2026
65%Democratic
- Democratic65%
- Republican35%
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Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
The odds
66%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party66%▲ 1
- Republican Party35%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Democratic Party: 63% on Oct 20, 66% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 66% | ▲ 1 | 65¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 7.4M |
| Republican Party | 35% | ▼ 1 | 34¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 9.2M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Crypto.com
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)RepublicanKalshi 35%Crypto.com 35%1 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)Democratic PartyKalshi 66%Polymarket 66%Agree
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
66%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party66%▲ 1
- Republican Party35%▼ 2
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: U.S. Senate, Democratic Party, Republican Party
Search ›-
Top Trump ally warns Republican Party 'dead' if it loses key voting bloc ahead of midtermsMidterm election outcomes depend heavily on energy costs and foreign policy, Joe Concha predicts on 'Varney & Co.' A top Senate Republican warned that the same voting bloc that has propelled the GOP to power over the last decade is at risk… -
Bill Ackman goes off on Democratic Party, says it's in worst place it's ever beenFox News Bill Ackman goes off on Democratic Party, says it's in worst place it's ever been Bill Ackman sounded off on The Democratic Party during an interview posted Monday, telling podcast host Katie Miller that it’s the worst it has ever… -
Bill Ackman sounds off on 'crazy, radicalized' Democratic Party, argues it's in 'worst place it's ever been'Bill Ackman sounded off on The Democratic Party during an interview posted Monday, telling podcast host Katie Miller that it’s the worst it has ever been. Investor Bill Ackman called the Democratic Party "crazy, radicalized and… -
Trump going for ‘Yalta 2’ with Putin and Xi would blow up the Republican PartyIf President Donald Trump wants a full-on riot within the Republican Party, going along with Vladimir Putin’s idea for a “Yalta 2” summit with Xi Jinping is the way to do it. Putin knows that the original Yalta was a triumph for Joseph… -
U.S. Senate race in Minnesota moves toward GOP in new Cook ratingPresident Donald Trump said he has committed more than $400 million to help Republicans in the midterms, including $300 million already spent on advertising, contacting voters, holding rallies and other efforts. “It is my Great Honor to do… -
Will Latino voters stick with the Republican Party? | CNN PoliticsLatino voters helped send President Donald Trump back to the White House in 2024, but CNN's Arlette Sanez breaks down the signs that Democrats may be making gains with the key voting demographic this midterm season. Discover more videos… -
Is Tarrant County the Ohio of Texas? Why it's a key county to watch in the U.S. Senate race, Texas electionsOctober 19, 2026 / 10:14 PM CDT / CBS Texas The political ground in Tarrant County is red hot, and the battle for Texas' U.S. Senate seat is turning up the heat. Gov. Greg Abbott, Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic rival James… -
NY Democratic Party quietly OKs resolution condemning antisemitism while battling claims it’s ‘soft’ on issueThe state Democratic Party has quietly approved a resolution condemning antisemitism as it battles back against the notion its leaders “are soft’’ on anti-Jewish hate. The little-noticed measure was overwhelmingly passed earlier this month… -
Senate candidate Angie Nixon says she "previously had very little support" from Democratic partyCBS News Nixon on support from Democratic party Pope Leo delivers Sunday Angelus prayer Face the Nation: Cramer, political panel Turner on Starlink slowdown CBS News poll on Texas Senate race Open: "Face the Nation," Oct. 18, 2026 Nature… -
Michele Tafoya tries to distance herself from Trump as U.S. Senate race tightensOctober 18, 2026 / 6:11 PM CDT / CBS Minnesota One of the closest elections is expected to be the Minnesota race for U.S. Senate. According to the site Real Clear Politics, the average of polls has DFL Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan 2.9% ahead of… -
GOP candidate for U.S. Senate in Minnesota Michele Tafoya champions herself as independent voiceCBS News GOP candidate for U.S. Senate in Minnesota Michele Tafoya champions herself as independent voice Here's when the wind will die down in Minnesota | Oct. 18, 2026 We warm on Sunday, with highs in the mid 60s | Next Weather 6 p.m… -
Tafoya tries to distance herself from Trump as U.S. Senate race tightensCBS News Baltimore 8am CBS News Boston 8am CBS News Chicago 7am CBS News Colorado This Morning 6am CBS News Los Angeles Mornings 5am CBS News Miami 8am CBS News New York 8am CBS News Texas 7am
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Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
60%Oil ≥ $85; D Senate
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- Oil ≥ $85; R Senate31%▲ 1
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Minnesota Senate winner? (2026)
88%Peggy Flanagan
- Peggy Flanagan88%▲ 1
- Michele Tafoya12%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.