Texas Senate winner? (2026)
66%James Talarico
- James Talarico66%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton35%▼ 1
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Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
The odds
64%Oil ≥ $85; D Senate
- Oil ≥ $85; D Senate64%
- Oil ≥ $85; R Senate32%▲ 3
- Oil < $85; R Senate2%▼ 2
- Oil < $85; D Senate2%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 58% on Oct 20, 64% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil ≥ $85; D Senate | 64% | 64¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | $305K | |
| Oil ≥ $85; R Senate | 32% | ▲ 3 | 31¢ | 34¢ | $2.99 | $22K |
| Oil < $85; R Senate | 2% | ▼ 2 | 2¢ | 2¢ | $47.62 | $36K |
| Oil < $85; D Senate | 2% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $55.56 | $346K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate
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Blanche DEFENDS DOJ's Alaska Senate election lawsuitU.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche defends the Justice Department's preemptive lawsuit involving Alaska's U.S. Senate race, arguing the legal action is intended to prevent voter confusion rather than stop ballots from being cast. Blanche… -
Republicans Could Still Keep the Senate. Here’s HowOct 26, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Certain preelection forecasts have Democrats riding a blue wave to majorities in both the House and the Senate, but there are a few ways for the GOP to keep its grasp on the upper chamber for the remainder of… -
Illinois U.S. Senate seat among races in 2026 midterm electionsCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Illinois U.S. Senate seat… -
Sanders could soon get a Senate bully pulpitYour first read on Capitol Hill politics and policy. 10/26/2026 04:50 AM EDT IN TODAY’S EDITION:— Trump-spurned Republicans snub successors— Dems plan Trump target in Epstein probe— Blanche defends Alaska election suit Bernie Sanders is… -
Alaska's Democratic Senate candidate pauses midterms campaigning after car crashPeltola is currently a member of Congress Mary Peltola, Alaska's Democratic Senate candidate, has paused campaigning ahead of the US midterm elections after sustaining "minor injuries" in a car crash. Peltola, 53, and her family were… -
Sen. Kevin Cramer: Senate control looks like a 50/50 tossupSen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the midterm elections, top races to watch in November, and more. Sen. Kevin Cramer: Senate control looks like a 50/50 tossup -
Watch: BBC asks Democrat El-Sayed about tight Michigan Senate raceMichigan is one of the key races Democrats need to win if the party is to take control of the US Senate after the midterm elections on 3 November. With President Donald Trump's approval near record lows and voters frustrated by the high… -
Senate Control May Come Down to Fishing Concerns in AlaskaOct 26, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT While some midterms voters elsewhere are focused on familiar key issues, from immigration to inflation, Alaskans are debating salmon runs, bycatch limits, and the future of the state's fishing industry, issues… -
Trump administration faces record vacancies in Senate-confirmed postsBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. As the GOP faces a… -
Mississippi Senate race heats up amid Trump's Southern midterm campaignFmr RNC Deputy Comms Director Cassie Smedile discusses Trump's Southern midterm campaign, analyzing the Mississippi Senate matchup between Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democratic candidate Scott Colom. Mississippi Senate race… -
Trump and Obama clash over Michigan as battle for Senate control intensifiesMidterm election campaigns heat up as President Donald Trump and Barack Obama hold dueling rallies in Michigan. Cheryl Casone hosts a panel discussion to analyze these campaigns. They also examine voter dissatisfaction with the economy in… -
Blanche gets combative over DOJ lawsuit alleging potential confusion in Alaska Senate raceCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Blanche gets…
Related markets
All senate ›Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
65%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party65%▲ 1
- Republican Party36%▼ 1
Texas Senate Election Winner
67%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)67%▲ 2
- Ken Paxton (R)34%▼ 2
South Carolina Senate winner? (2026)
77%Darline Graham
- Darline Graham77%▼ 3
- Annie Andrews24%▲ 3
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
63%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep63%
- D-House, R-Senate28%▲ 2
- Republicans sweep9%▼ 1
1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Michigan Senate winner? (2026)
68%Abdul El-Sayed
- Abdul El-Sayed68%▲ 2
- Mike Rogers32%▼ 3
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions