Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
63%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party63%▼ 4
- Republican Party37%▲ 2
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Texas Senate winner? (2026)
The odds
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton36%
How the odds have moved
James Talarico: 62% on Oct 20, 65% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | 65% | ▲ 1 | 64¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 13.8M |
| Ken Paxton | 36% | 35¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 27.7M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas Senate, James Talarico, Ken Paxton
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Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas campaign stopTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton criticized Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico during a campaign stop, accusing him of supporting socialist policies. Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas… -
WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in AustinDemocrat James Talarico speaks to supporters and hosts a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign tour concert in Austin, Texas. WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in Austin Democrat James Talarico speaks to… -
Texas Senate race heats up as James Talarico faces voter scrutinyFox News Texas Senate race heats up as James Talarico faces voter scrutiny Tess Smith and Sarah Gardner join 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss the Texas Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton. Texas voters split in the Senate… -
Major Ken Paxton Donor Endorses James Talarico in TexasOct 22, 2026 at 04:04 AM EDT A major donor to Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton has announced his support for Democratic opponent James Talarico in the closely watched U.S. Senate race in Texas. “I'm Thomas J. Henry. I'm here to… -
Bush family members back Democrat James Talarico in Texas Senate raceFrom left: Neil Bush, George W Bush, and George HW Bush Two members of the Bush family, the Republican political dynasty that counts Texas as its political launchpad, have backed Democrat James Talarico in the hotly fought race for a… -
Talarico is trying to deceive the voters of Texas: Ken PaxtonTexas GOP U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton discusses his upcoming race against Democrat James Talarico on 'Hannity.' ... Talarico is trying to deceive the voters of Texas: Ken Paxton Texas GOP U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton discusses his… -
WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign event in Fort BendTexas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico speaks at a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign event in Fort Bend as part of his statewide tour ahead of the midterm election. WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign… -
James Talarico fires back at Elon Musk in Texas Senate race feudJames Talarico, the Democratic nominee seeking a Senate seat from Texas, fired back Wednesday night at Elon Musk for an X post in which the world's richest man hours earlier had said, "There is something deeply wrong with Talarico." "There… -
Texas Senate race tied as early voting surgesFox News host Will Cain discusses the latest in the deadlocked Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico on 'The Will Cain Show' ... Texas Senate race tied as early voting surges Fox News host Will Cain discusses the latest… -
George W. Bush's brother Neil Bush says he voted for James Talarico in Texas Senate raceUpdated on: October 21, 2026 / 11:02 AM EDT / CBS News Neil Bush, the brother of former President George W. Bush and son of former President George H.W. Bush, said Tuesday that he voted for Democrat James Talarico in the Texas Senate race… -
Texas Senate race: Talarico campaign turns its fire on Elon MuskJames Talarico's campaign hit back at Elon Musk Thursday, calling the 2026 election cycle's top spender out for his cash infusion in the Texas Senate race amid an ongoing feud between the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas and the…
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All senate ›Texas Senate Election Winner
64%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)64%
- Ken Paxton (R)37%
Alaska Senate winner? (2026)
75%Democratic party
- Democratic party75%▼ 1
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Michigan Senate Election Winner
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- Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%▲ 1
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2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
65%Democrats sweep
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- D-House, R-Senate26%▲ 1
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1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Ohio Senate winner? (2026)
68%Sherrod Brown
- Sherrod Brown68%▼ 1
- Jon Husted33%▲ 1
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.