Michigan Senate Election Winner

Polymarket Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3 · $112K today · $2.7M traded · $998K at stake · prices read 2 min ago

The odds

68%Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Abdul El-Sayed (D)68%▼ 4
Mike Rogers (R)33%▲ 4

How the odds have moved

Abdul El-Sayed (D): 70% on Oct 20, 68% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Abdul El-Sayed (D)	68%	▼ 4	67¢	68¢	$1.47	$1.5M
Mike Rogers (R)	33%	▲ 4	32¢	33¢	$3.03	$1.1M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Michigan Senate winner? (2026)Mike Rogers (R)Kalshi 34%Polymarket 33%2 pts apart

Michigan Senate winner? (2026)

66%Abdul El-Sayed

Abdul El-Sayed66%▼ 2
Mike Rogers34%▲ 3

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Michigan Senate

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Trump calls Michigan Senate candidate El-Sayed a ‘jihadist’Fox News · 12 h agoPresident Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Port Huron, Michigan, about Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, his family’s alleged support for terrorist organizations and Trump’s characterization of El-Sayed as a ‘jihadist.’ Trump…
Black voters UNSURE of El-Sayed in Michigan Senate raceFox News · 14 h agoBlack voters in Michigan voice their concerns about Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed as only weeks remain in the tight race. Black voters UNSURE of El-Sayed in Michigan Senate race Black voters in Michigan voice their…
Trump Targets Muslim Opponent in Michigan Senate Pushenmnews.com · 6 h agoPresident Trump turned a Michigan Senate contest into a religion-fueled attack line, warning that Democratic candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a Muslim, would bring extremists into the country if he won. Speaking as he worked to boost the…
Trump Unloads on El-Sayed as Michigan Senate Showdown Nears [WATCH]LifeZette · 3 h agoPresident Donald Trump rallied supporters in Port Huron, Michigan, ahead of the Nov. 3 election that will decide control of the House and Senate. The president used the appearance to hammer Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and…
‘Only Senator That’ll Need A Metal Detector’: Trump’s Fiery Attack On Michigan Senate Hopeful El-SayedNews18 · 7 h agoUS President Donald Trump this weekend took his attack on Michigan Senate hopeful Abdul El-Sayed up a notch, saying the Democrat should have to pass through a metal detector before being allowed into the Senate. “He would be the only…
Michigan Senate Race: Black Voters Could Decide the WinnerEURweb | Black News · 15 h agoWith the November 3 midterm elections approaching, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are competing for support in Michigan’s Black communities. The contest could determine whether Democrats retain the seat being vacated by…
Michigan Senate Candidates Clash in Final DebateIJR News · 20 h agoGet above the noise Log in to follow your topics, join the conversation, and publish a journal of your own. Mike Rogers challenged Abdul El-Sayed's views on Iran and Israel during the debate. The candidates clashed over immigration and ICE…
Trump escalates rhetoric against El-Sayed as he tries to undermine Democrat in Michigan Senate race@wectnews · 9 h ago“Over the past three weeks, I’ve traveled all over the country. But I’m here today in Michigan for a very important reason,” Trump told the crowd in Port Huron. “I’m here to keep a jihadist Muslim Brotherhood member from becoming a United…
Obama backs El-Sayed in Michigan Senate raceYeni Şafak English · 23 h agoTrump is scheduled to hold his own campaign event in Michigan on Sunday to bolster Republican candidates in the closely contested state, setting up a direct contrast between the two presidents' competing visions for the electorate. Trump…
El-Sayed has cultivated relationships with agitators: Mark LevinFox News · 8 h agoFox News host Mark Levin discusses the importance of voting ahead of the midterm elections, Democratic Party policies and candidates, and Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed on ‘Life, Liberty & Levin.’ El-Sayed has cultivated…
Ilhan Omar called out for bizarre interview answer on marriage controversyFox News · 18 h ago'Fox News Sunday' host Shannon Bream and the 'Ruthless Podcast' panel weigh in on Ilhan Omar's comments about her marriage controversy and midterm elections, specifically the Michigan senate race. Ilhan Omar called out for bizarre…
Rogers fires back at Welker over El-Sayed's Muslim Brotherhood controversy, 'You are giving him a pass'Fox News · 11 h agoMichigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers accused Kristen Welker of defending Democratic rival Abdul El-Sayed during a tense exchange over alleged Muslim Brotherhood ties. Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers fired back…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 3, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$2.7M

Today$112K

This week$78K

At stake$998K

In the news82 headlines today, 216 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respect

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions