Party to control the US Senate in 2026
64%Democratic
- Democratic64%
- Republican37%
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Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
The odds
65%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party65%▼ 2
- Republican Party36%▲ 2
How the odds have moved
Democratic Party: 64% on Oct 20, 65% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 65% | ▼ 2 | 64¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | $5.4M |
| Republican Party | 36% | ▲ 2 | 35¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | $3.9M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Crypto.com
- Which party will win the Senate in 2026?RepublicanPolymarket 36%Crypto.com 37%1 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Kalshi
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)Democratic PartyKalshi 63%Polymarket 65%2 pts apart
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
63%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party63%
- Republican Party37%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Senate, Democratic Party, Republican Party
Search ›-
John Oliver Issues Urgent Warning Ahead of Midterms About the Republican Party’s Nazi TiesJohn Oliver returned to the “Last Week Tonight” desk after a two-week absence and focused the entirety of Sunday night’s episode on a “worrying trend that’s been on the rise” amongst the Republican Party ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm… -
Ex-con former Dem Ill. Gov. Rod Blagojevich urges America to vote Republican: ‘Democratic Party has been hijacked by socialists’Disgraced ex-con and Democratic former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich on Sunday urged voters to cast ballots for Republicans, griping that socialists such as Zohran Mamdani have “hijacked’’ the Dem Party. Blagojevich — who was convicted of… -
Opinion | Can AOC rise to the top of the Democratic Party?She is young, fiery, and fearless, whether boldly calling out President Trump as “a criminal” or standing up for the rights of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the immigrant mistakenly deported to a prison in El Salvador. Her passion – and the huge… -
'Dead Within the Democratic Party': How AIPAC's Electoral Adventure UnraveledThe lobby's retreat from candidate endorsements follows an election cycle in which targeted Democrats turned AIPAC's spending against it – and former allies questioned what its millions had accomplished 'Dead Within the Democratic Party'… -
Michigan sheriff to leaves Democratic Party over shift to the leftSaginaw County Sheriff William Federspiel joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discusses leaving the Democratic Party and endorsing Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race. Michigan sheriff to leaves Democratic Party over shift to… -
Early voting numbers up among Black voters, according to LA Democratic PartyBATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Nearly 300,000 ballots have been cast in the first four days of early voting in Louisiana, and Black voters are making up a larger share of that total than they did in 2022. “We went from 23.4% of early ballots in… -
Peltola, Democratic Party move to intervene in DOJ election lawsuitThe U.S. Senate campaign of Democrat Mary Peltola is among those asking a federal judge to dismiss a Department of Justice lawsuit that seeks to block election results if she wins. The lawsuit, which President Donald Trump said he… -
OC Republican Party pounces on mailer it calls ‘racially degrading’A political mailer depicting Republican candidate Gracey Van Der Mark as a sticker logo on a cluster of bananas is receiving harsh criticism from the Orange County Republican Party. In social media posts on Thursday, Oct. 22, the OC GOP… -
Lubbock County Republican Party chairman releases statement ahead of President Trump’s visitLUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) - Statement from Chairman Ken Adams Regarding President Donald J. Trump’s Visit to Lubbock, Texas “The Lubbock County Republican Party is honored to welcome President Donald J. Trump to Lubbock on Tuesday, October 27… -
Democratic Senate Candidate: Trump Did ‘Better Job’ on Border Than BidenOct 25, 2026 at 05:52 PM EDT Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Iowa, said President Donald Trump has done a “better job” on the border than former President Joe Biden, while identifying several areas where he could work… -
Ex-NFL punter turned California Democrat sparks fury with ‘racist’ banana stunt: ‘Toxic mockery’California Democrats are facing backlash over a political mailer depicting a Latina Republican candidate as a banana sticker, with the Orange County GOP blasting the image as a racially degrading attack. The mailer, paid for by the… -
JD Vance to hold midterm rally in Weatherford, Texas, amid tight Paxton-Talarico Senate raceOctober 25, 2026 / 9:05 PM CDT / CBS Texas Vice President JD Vance will headline a midterm rally in Weatherford, Texas, this Thursday, the Republican Party announced on Sunday. The rally will be held at JRJ Construction on SW Ric…
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Michigan Senate winner? (2026)
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions