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Texas Senate Race 2026
Election day: November 3, 2026. The markets' leading names: James Talarico, Ken Paxton.
Prediction markets
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- James Talarico64%▲1
- Ken Paxton35%▼3
- Texas Senate Election WinnerPolymarket
- James Talarico (D)64%▲1
- Ken Paxton (R)36%▼2
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- James Talarico (D)93%▼2
- Ken Paxton (R)5%
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- James Talarico (D)96%▲3
- Ken Paxton (R)2%▲1
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- James Talarico (D)71%▲8
- Ken Paxton (R)26%▲4
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- Democrats97%
- Republicans2%▼2
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- James Talarico (D)55%▼1
- Ken Paxton (R)35%▼3
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- Republicans94%▼1
- Democrats5%▼1
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- Greg Abbott and James Talarico win47%▲11
- Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton win38%▼3
- Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico win20%▼3
- Gina Hinojosa and Ken Paxton win<1%▼1
- Texas Senate and Governor ComboPolymarket
- Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate43%▲5
- Reps sweep37%▼8
- Dems sweep22%▲3
- Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate1%
- Texas Senate Election Margin of VictoryPolymarket
- Talarico 3-6%23%
- Paxton 0-3%22%▼1
- Talarico 0-3%22%▼2
- Talarico 6-9%14%
- Paxton 12%+8%▲3
- Talarico 9-12%6%
- + 4 more outcomes
- Texas Senate Election: TurnoutPolymarket
- 9.6M-10M27%▼8
- 10M-10.4M20%▼5
- 11.2M+19%▲2
- 9.2M-9.6M18%▲1
- 10.4M-10.8M11%▼1
- 8.8M-9.2M4%▲1
- + 4 more outcomes
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- Dems sweep49%▼3
- Dems TX & MI, Reps ME17%▼3
- Reps sweep16%▼1
- Reps TX & ME, Dems MI13%▲5
- Dems TX, Reps MI & ME10%▲6
- Reps TX & MI, Dems ME6%▲4
- + 2 more outcomes
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- Nobody87%▲4
- Ken Paxton13%▼1
- James Talarico1%▼2
Prediction-market prices show what traders are paying for each outcome, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong. Not betting or investment advice.
In the news
No coverage of this race in the index in the last two weeks.
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