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Prediction markets
What traders give each outcome in elections, Congress, the courts, the White House and the economy, most traded first. Every bill, vote, member and race page shows the markets on it too.
- Fed Decision in October?Polymarket
- No change80%▼3
- 25 bps increase19%▲3
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- + 1 more outcome
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?Polymarket
- October 1597%▲3
- October 3182%▲3
- November 1561%▲1
- November 3046%▲3
- + 1 more outcome
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- 360-37989%▲58
- 380-3999%▲1
- 340-359<1%▼53
- 400-419<1%▼1
- + 2 more outcomes
- US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?Polymarket
- October 1598%▲5
- October 3182%▲2
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Polymarket
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom15%
- Jon Ossoff14%▼2
- Kamala Harris6%
- + 11 more outcomes
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- December 316%▲3
- October 311%
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- Democratic Party89%
- Republican Party11%
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- No Hormuz Agreement89%
- Hormuz Agreement; D Senate6%
- Hormuz Agreement; R Senate5%▲1
- Next French Presidential ElectionPolymarket
- Marine Le Pen42%▲2
- Édouard Philippe21%▼2
- David Lisnard14%▼1
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%
- + 4 more outcomes
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket
- Yes17%▼1
- Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsPolymarket
- Democrats Sweep62%
- R Senate, D House28%
- Republicans Sweep10%▲1
- D Senate, R House1%
- + 1 more outcome
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- Jon Ossoff17%
- Gavin Newsom13%▼1
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%▼1
- Kamala Harris8%
- + 15 more outcomes
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- James Talarico64%▲1
- Ken Paxton35%▼3
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- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%38%▼11
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%36%▲13
- Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%15%▲1
- Lula da Silva <4%9%▼2
- + 2 more outcomes
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- 240-25923%▲4
- 220-23920%▼3
- 260-27913%▲1
- 200-21910%▼8
- + 8 more outcomes
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- Gadi Eizenkot47%▲2
- Benjamin Netanyahu31%▼1
- Naftali Bennett14%▲1
- Avigdor Lieberman3%
- + 2 more outcomes
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- March 3167%▲1
- December 3143%▼1
- November 3027%▼1
- October 3114%▼1
- + 1 more outcome
- Putin out as President of Russia by...?Polymarket
- June 30, 202710%
- December 31, 20264%▲1
- Will Russia target Kyiv on...?Polymarket
- October 13>99%▲9
- October 1497%▲8
- October 1595%▲6
- October 1782%▼4
- + 15 more outcomes
- Presidential Election Winner 2028Polymarket
- JD Vance22%▲3
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff10%
- Gavin Newsom9%
- + 12 more outcomes
- Brazil Presidential ElectionPolymarket
- Flávio Bolsonaro87%▲1
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva13%
- Which party will win the House in 2026?Polymarket
- Democratic Party91%
- Republican Party10%
- NATO x Russia military clash by...?Polymarket
- December 3124%▲3
- October 317%
- Serbia Parliamentary Election WinnerPolymarket
- Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia63%▲4
- Student List – Students Win38%▼3
- Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%
- Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)<1%
- + 2 more outcomes
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- October 1598%▲1
- October 3186%
- November 1575%▼2
- November 3064%▲1
- + 1 more outcome
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- Oil ≥ $80; D Senate55%
- Oil ≥ $80; R Senate31%
- Oil < $80; D Senate9%
- Oil < $80; R Senate7%
- Texas Senate Election WinnerPolymarket
- James Talarico (D)65%▲2
- Ken Paxton (R)36%▼2
- Next Prime Minister of Serbia?Polymarket
- Aleksandar Vučić70%▲11
- Ilija Srdanović17%▼6
- Vladan Đokić2%▼3
- Stefan Krkobabić<1%
- + 2 more outcomes
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Polymarket
- J.D. Vance49%
- Marco Rubio15%
- Tucker Carlson3%
- Ron DeSantis2%
- + 4 more outcomes
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- 65-8968%▲42
- 90-11418%▲7
- 40-6412%▼35
- 115-1394%
- + 2 more outcomes
Prediction-market prices show what traders are paying for each outcome, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong. Not betting or investment advice.
Congressional and federal records come from official public sources: the House Clerk, the U.S. Senate, GovInfo and the Library of Congress (bill status), the Federal Register, and the congress-legislators project. They are copied on a schedule and may lag the official record by a few hours; the official sources govern. News and coverage counts are drawn from the 4Conservative index and reflect what the press published, not 4Conservative's views. Nothing here is an endorsement of any candidate, party or position. Terms of use.