Fed decision in Jan 2027?
63%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate63%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps32%▲ 2
- Cut 25bps3%
- Hike >25bps1%
1 more
- Cut >25bps<1%
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Fed Decision in January?
The odds
63%No change
- No change63%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase32%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease2%
- 50+ bps increase2%
- 50+ bps decrease1%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
No change: 63% on Oct 13, 63% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 63% | ▼ 1 | 64¢ | 65¢ | $89.5K |
| 25 bps increase | 32% | ▲ 1 | 32¢ | 33¢ | $113.8K |
| 25 bps decrease | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $55.2K | |
| 50+ bps increase | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $39.3K | |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $47.9K |
The same question on Kalshi
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Fed decision in Mar 2027?
45%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps45%▼ 5
- Fed maintains rate43%▲ 2
- Cut >25bps5%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps4%
1 more
- Cut 25bps3%▲ 1
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
66%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate66%▼ 6
- Hike 25bps19%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps10%
- Cut >25bps4%
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed decision in Jun 2027?
56%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate56%▲ 3
- Hike 25bps28%
- Cut >25bps6%
- Cut 25bps6%
1 more
- Hike >25bps3%▼ 1
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
78%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate78%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps10%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps7%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps6%▼ 2
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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