Predictions

What traders on Kalshi and Polymarket expect for the Fed, inflation, jobs and growth, the stock market, companies, crypto, commodities and currencies: the odds of each outcome and the ranges they imply, next to the instruments they are about.

The Fed's next meetings

Target range now 3.75–4.00%Cut Hold Hike

Oct 2880%19%Hold 80%3.92%Kalshi Polymarket
Dec 923%75%Hike 75%4.11%Kalshi Polymarket
Jan 2762%33%Hold 62%4.18%Kalshi Polymarket
Mar 1744%48%Hike 48%4.28%Kalshi
Apr 2814%66%20%Hold 66%4.29%Kalshi
Jun 957%31%Hold 57%4.33%Kalshi

The chance of a cut, a hold or a hike at each meeting, Kalshi and Polymarket averaged where both list it, and the target-range midpoint those odds imply afterwards.

Fed Decision in October?

80%No change

No change80%▼ 3
25 bps increase19%▲ 3
25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps increase<1%

1 more

50+ bps decrease<1%

TLT+0.09%SPY−0.06%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

97%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
1 (25 bps)2%
2 (50 bps)1%
3 (75 bps)<1%

9 more

4 (100 bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%
12+ (300+ bps)<1%

^FVX−0.04%^GSPC−0.06%

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.21%median

0.88%4.63%

Median 4.21%Middle half 4.06% – 4.33%

Fed Decision in December?

74%25 bps increase

25 bps increase74%▲ 1
No change22%
50+ bps increase3%
25 bps decrease1%

1 more

50+ bps decrease<1%

TLT+0.09%SPY−0.06%

Fed rate cut by...?

53%July 2027 Meeting

July 2027 Meeting53%▼ 1
June 2027 Meeting36%▼ 1
April 2027 Meeting33%
March 2027 Meeting18%▲ 1

3 more

January 2027 Meeting5%
December 2026 Meeting3%
October 2026 Meeting1%

SPY−0.06%IEF+0.03%

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

0.04median

-0.5020.5

Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.30

^IRX−0.17%^GSPC−0.06%

Fed Decision in January?

63%No change

No change63%▼ 1
25 bps increase32%▲ 1
25 bps decrease2%
50+ bps increase2%

1 more

50+ bps decrease1%▲ 1

^FVX−0.04%^GSPC−0.06%

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

90%No change

No change90%▼ 3
25 bps increase9%▲ 4
50+ bps decrease<1%
25 bps decrease<1%

1 more

50+ bps increase<1%

EURUSD=X+0.18%EURJPY=X−0.02%

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

80%chance▲ 3

TLT+0.09%SPY−0.06%

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

74%No change

No change74%▼ 10
25 bps increase25%▲ 9
50+ bps increase<1%
25 bps decrease<1%

1 more

50+ bps decrease<1%

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

76%No Change

No Change76%▼ 21
25 bps increase23%▲ 20
50+ bps decrease<1%
50+ bps increase<1%

1 more

25 bps decrease<1%

^SSMI+0.66%USDCHF=X−0.14%

Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?

0.02median

-0.504.50

Median 0.02Middle half -0.24 – 0.28

TLT+0.09%SPY−0.06%

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

4%chance

TLT+0.09%SPY−0.06%

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

4.12%median

2.5%5.5%

Median 4.12%Middle half 4.02% – 4.21%

^TNX−0.08%^IRX−0.17%

Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?

4.7%median

-0.25%6%

Median 4.7%

TLT+0.09%SPY−0.06%

Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?

3.9%median

2.5%5.5%

Median 3.9%Middle half 3.83% – 3.98%

TLT+0.09%SPY−0.06%

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

4.38%median

0.75%6.25%

Median 4.38%Middle half 4.12% – 4.69%

^FVX−0.04%^GSPC−0.06%

Next Fed rate hike?

96%Before 2029

Before 202996%▲ 1
Before July 202896%▼ 1
Before 202894%
Before July 202792%

1 more

Before 202779%▼ 1

TLT+0.09%SPY−0.06%

Number of rate hikes in 2026?

2median

Median 2Middle half 2 – 2

TLT+0.09%SPY−0.06%

Fed rate cut before 2027?

4%chance

TLT+0.09%SPY−0.06%

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

98%chance

^IRX−0.17%^GSPC−0.06%

Fed funds rate after Dec 2027 meeting?

4.5%median

-0.25%6%

Median 4.5%

TLT+0.09%SPY−0.06%

Fed funds rate after Jan 2027 meeting?

4.18%median

-0.25%6.75%

Median 4.18%Middle half 4.05% – 4.93%

^FVX−0.04%^GSPC−0.06%

Fed decision in Jul 2027?

78%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate78%▼ 2
Hike 25bps10%▲ 3
Cut 25bps7%▲ 1
Hike >25bps6%▼ 2

1 more

Cut >25bps1%

TLT+0.09%SPY−0.06%

Fed funds rate after Mar 2027 meeting?

4.25%median

-0.25%6%

Median 4.25%Middle half 4.1% – 5%

TLT+0.09%SPY−0.06%

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

69%chance▼ 7

TLT+0.09%SPY−0.06%

ECB rate cut in 2026?

4%chance

TLT+0.09%SPY−0.06%

Fed funds rate after Jun 2027 meeting?

4.62%median

-0.25%5%

Median 4.62%Middle half 4.52% – 4.73%

SPY−0.06%IEF+0.03%

Fed decision in Sep 2027?

73%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate73%▼ 2
Hike 25bps8%
Cut 25bps8%
Hike >25bps6%

1 more

Cut >25bps5%

TLT+0.09%SPY−0.06%

Fed funds rate after Oct 2027 meeting?

82%Above 4.50%

-0.25%4.75%

^TNX−0.08%^IRX−0.17%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's probability: a contract at 84¢ means traders give it an 84% chance. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a price ladder ("above $80,000, above $82,000 ..."), the odds at each level give a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way, and the middle half spans the 25th to the 75th percentile. Markets with no quote within ten cents and little trading are left out.

Where both venues ask the same question, both are shown. Markets that settle on different prices (Bitcoin on one exchange at noon, on an index at 5pm) are never averaged.

Each question opens its own page: every outcome, how the odds have moved, and what it settled on.

The venues

Kalshi · regulated U.S. exchange; prices in contracts
Polymarket · prices in dollars traded

Read every few minutes; last 2 min ago. Each card links to its market.

Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.