Fed funds rate at end of 2027
4.38%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 4.38%Middle half 4.11% – 4.69%
Install
Fed rate cut by...?
The odds
54%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting54%
- June 2027 Meeting37%
- April 2027 Meeting33%
- March 2027 Meeting18%▲ 1
- January 2027 Meeting5%
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting1%
How the odds have moved
July 2027 Meeting: 53% on Oct 13, 54% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2027 Meeting | 54% | 27¢ | 80¢ | $115 | |
| June 2027 Meeting | 37% | 23¢ | 50¢ | $27.00 | |
| April 2027 Meeting | 33% | 19¢ | 46¢ | $50.00 | |
| March 2027 Meeting | 18% | ▲ 1 | 14¢ | 21¢ | $1.3K |
| January 2027 Meeting | 5% | 4¢ | 6¢ | $3.8K | |
| December 2026 Meeting | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $407.9K | |
| October 2026 Meeting | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $216.3K | |
| January Meeting | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $588.1K | |
| March Meeting | <1% | 0¢ | |||
| April Meeting | <1% | 0¢ | $543.0K | ||
| June Meeting | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $785.0K | |
| July Meeting | <1% | 0¢ | $579.1K | ||
| September 2026 Meeting | <1% | 0¢ | $645.1K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Next Fed rate hike?
96%Before 2029
- Before 202996%▲ 1
- Before July 202896%
- Before 202894%
- Before July 202792%
1 more
- Before 202778%▼ 2
Next Fed rate cut?
77%Before 2029
- Before 202977%
- Before July 202863%
- Before 202838%
- Before July 202722%
1 more
- Before 20273%
Fed funds rate at end of 2028
3.75%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 3.75%Middle half 2.52% – 4.96%
Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026
4.15%median
3.25%4.75%
Median 4.15%Middle half 4.04% – 4.28%
Number of rate hikes in 2026?
2median
14
Median 2Middle half 2 – 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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