Next Fed rate cut?
77%Before 2029
- Before 202977%
- Before July 202863%
- Before 202838%
- Before July 202722%
1 more
- Before 20273%
Install
Next Fed rate hike?
The odds
96%Before 2029
- Before 202996%▲ 1
- Before July 202896%▼ 1
- Before 202894%
- Before July 202792%
- Before 202779%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Before 2029: 96% on Oct 13, 96% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2029 | 96% | ▲ 1 | 94¢ | 98¢ | 1.7K |
| Before July 2028 | 96% | ▼ 1 | 93¢ | 98¢ | 586 |
| Before 2028 | 94% | 92¢ | 95¢ | 2.5K | |
| Before July 2027 | 92% | 90¢ | 93¢ | 22.2K | |
| Before 2027 | 79% | ▼ 1 | 77¢ | 80¢ | 69.1K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Fed funds rate at end of 2028
3.75%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 3.75%Middle half 2.52% – 4.96%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting36%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting33%
- March 2027 Meeting18%▲ 1
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting1%
Fed funds rate at end of 2029
3.69%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 3.69%Middle half 1.94% – 5.59%
Fed funds rate at end of 2027
4.38%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 4.38%Middle half 4.12% – 4.69%
Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026
4.15%median
3.25%4.75%
Median 4.15%Middle half 4.04% – 4.28%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.