Predictions

What traders on Kalshi and Polymarket expect for the Fed, inflation, jobs and growth, the stock market, companies, crypto, commodities and currencies: the odds of each outcome and the ranges they imply, next to the instruments they are about.

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$2.42Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.42T.

  • Reaches $1.5T93%
  • Reaches $1.75T82%
  • Reaches $2T69%
  • Reaches $2.5T47%
  • Falls to $800B3%
  • Falls to $700B3%
  • Falls to $600B2%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

Anthropic IPO by __?

Nov 28, 2026even chance by
  • October 15, 2026<1%
  • October 31, 2026<1%
  • November 15, 20266%▲ 2
  • November 30, 202659%▲ 5
2 more
  • December 15, 202666%▲ 5
  • December 31, 202666%▼ 8

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

26%$2.0–$2.25T
  • $2.0–$2.25T26%▼ 3
  • $1.75–$2.0T23%▲ 6
  • $2.25–$2.5T20%▼ 3
  • $2.5–$2.75T9%▼ 1
6 more
  • $1.5–$1.75T9%▲ 3
  • $1.25–$1.5T3%
  • $3.0T+3%
  • No IPO by December 31, 20273%▼ 1
  • <$1.25T2%▼ 1
  • $2.75–$3.0T2%▼ 1

IPOs before 2027?

72%Anthropic
  • Anthropic72%▼ 2
  • Discord7%
  • Freddie Mac5%▲ 1
  • Perplexity4%
25 more
  • Celonis4%▲ 1
  • Revolut4%
  • Rippling4%
  • Databricks4%▲ 1
  • Remote3%
  • Applied Intuition3%
  • OpenAI3%
  • Stripe3%
  • Canva3%
  • Ripple Labs3%
  • Anduril2%
  • Ramp2%
  • Ledger2%
  • Anduril Industries2%
  • ByteDance2%
  • Epic Games2%
  • Mistral AI2%
  • Anysphere (Cursor)2%▼ 1
  • Waymo2%
  • Fannie Mae2%
  • WHOOP1%
  • Vanta1%
  • Glean1%
  • Brex1%
  • Deel<1%
SPCX+0.52%WLTH−1.39%

OpenAI IPO by...?

37%June 30, 2027
  • December 31, 20264%
  • March 31, 202721%▼ 1
  • June 30, 202737%▼ 1

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

97%No IPO by December 31, 2026
  • No IPO by December 31, 202697%
  • 1.5T+1%
  • <500B<1%
  • 750B–1T<1%
3 more
  • 500–750B<1%
  • 1T–1.25T<1%
  • 1.25T–1.5T<1%

Kraken IPO by ___ ?

Nov 15, 2027even chance by
  • December 31, 20265%
  • March 31, 202711%
  • June 30, 202728%▼ 6
  • December 31, 202757%▼ 1

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

$1.37Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $1.37T.

  • Reaches $1.25T71%
  • Reaches $1.5T27%
  • Reaches $1.75T7%
  • Reaches $2T7%
  • Falls to $800B14%
  • Falls to $750B6%
  • Falls to $700B5%
  • Falls to $600B3%

Already reached: ↑$1.0T, ↑$900B

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

8%Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
  • Brian Armstrong - Coinbase8%▲ 2
  • Andy Jassy - Amazon5%
  • Sundar Pichai - Google5%
  • Sam Altman - OpenAI3%
1 more
  • Dan Clancy - Twitch3%

Oura IPO Closing Market Cap

88%No IPO before January 2027
  • No IPO before January 202788%
  • $15B–$17.5B4%▼ 1
  • $20B+3%
  • $7.5B–$10B2%
4 more
  • $12.5B–$15B2%
  • $10B–$12.5B1%
  • $17.5B–$20B1%
  • <$7.5B<1%

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Nov 25, 2026even chance by
  • Before Oct 17, 20261%
  • Before Oct 24, 20261%
  • Before Nov 1, 20262%
  • Before Dec 1, 202664%▼ 3
4 more
  • Before Jan 1, 202770%▼ 2
  • Before Feb 1, 202781%▼ 3
  • Before Mar 1, 202783%▲ 1
  • Before Apr 1, 202786%
KalshiCloses Mar 31, 2027 · 2.6M contracts

Discord IPO Closing Market Cap

66%No IPO by December 31, 2027
  • No IPO by December 31, 202766%▲ 3
  • 11–14B11%▲ 1
  • 8–11B7%▼ 5
  • <5B5%
4 more
  • 20B+4%▼ 3
  • 14–17B3%▼ 2
  • 5–8B2%
  • 17–20B2%▼ 2

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

62%November 2026
  • November 202662%▲ 3
  • December 202615%▼ 7
  • January 20277%
  • February 20275%
12 more
  • May 20272%
  • No IPO before 20282%
  • March 20271%
  • April 20271%
  • June 20271%
  • July 20271%
  • August 20271%
  • September 20271%
  • October 20271%
  • November 20271%
  • December 20271%
  • October 2026<1%

Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year? (Before 2027)

70%Anthropic
  • Anthropic70%▼ 3
  • Discord14%▼ 2
  • Gopuff8%
  • Skims7%
23 more
  • Plaid7%
  • Oura7%
  • Kraken6%
  • Deel5%
  • Airwallex5%▼ 1
  • DeepSeek5%▼ 3
  • Mistral AI4%
  • Ripple Labs4%
  • Stripe4%▲ 1
  • Applied Intuition4%
  • Glean4%
  • Vanta3%▼ 1
  • Rippling3%
  • Beast Industries3%
  • Celonis3%▼ 1
  • Ramp3%
  • Brex3%
  • xAI3%
  • Anduril2%
  • Databricks2%▲ 1
  • OpenAI2%
  • Anysphere (Cursor)2%
  • Bloomberg2%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.