Fed decision in Oct 2027?
64%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate64%▲ 7
- Hike >25bps15%▼ 1
- Cut 25bps10%▲ 1
- Hike 25bps6%▼ 1
1 more
- Cut >25bps4%
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Fed decision in Dec 2027?
The odds
73%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate73%
- Cut >25bps7%
- Cut 25bps7%
- Hike 25bps7%
- Hike >25bps5%
How the odds have moved
Fed maintains rate: 73% on Oct 13, 73% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 73% | 76¢ | 86¢ | 7.8K | |
| Cut >25bps | 7% | 3¢ | 13¢ | 11.1K | |
| Cut 25bps | 7% | 4¢ | 12¢ | 3.8K | |
| Hike 25bps | 7% | 3¢ | 13¢ | 27.2K | |
| Hike >25bps | 5% | 3¢ | 9¢ | 77.5K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Fed decision in Jan 2028?
59%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate59%▼ 4
- Hike >25bps11%▼ 1
- Cut 25bps11%
- Hike 25bps11%
1 more
- Cut >25bps9%▲ 5
Fed decision in Sep 2027?
73%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate73%▼ 1
- Hike 25bps8%
- Cut 25bps8%
- Hike >25bps6%
1 more
- Cut >25bps5%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
78%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate78%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps10%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps7%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps6%▼ 2
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Fed decision in Jun 2027?
57%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate57%▲ 3
- Hike 25bps28%
- Cut >25bps6%
- Cut 25bps6%
1 more
- Hike >25bps3%▼ 1
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
66%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate66%▼ 6
- Hike 25bps19%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps10%
- Cut >25bps4%
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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