Fed median dot plot in December 2026
4.16%median
3.4%4.7%
Median 4.16%Middle half 4.07% – 4.27%
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Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
The odds
80%chance▲ 2
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?
0.02median
-0.504.50
Median 0.02Middle half -0.24 – 0.28
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
69%chance▼ 8
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?
99%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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