Fed median dot plot in December 2026
4.04%median
3.4%4.7%
Median 4.04%Middle half 3.98% – 4.09%
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Who will dissent at the December Fed meeting? (December 2026 FOMC)
The odds
17%Beth Hammack
- Beth Hammack17%▼ 3
- Lisa Cook14%▲ 2
- Neel Kashkari13%▲ 2
- Michelle Bowman12%▲ 2
- Lorie Logan12%▼ 1
- Christopher Waller8%▼ 2
- Michael Barr7%▲ 2
- Anna Paulson7%▲ 2
- Philip Jefferson3%▲ 1
- Jerome Powell3%▲ 1
- John Williams3%▲ 1
- Kevin Warsh1%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Beth Hammack: 18% on Oct 29, 17% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beth Hammack | 17% | ▼ 3 | 15¢ | 24¢ | 490 |
| Lisa Cook | 14% | ▲ 2 | 12¢ | 21¢ | 477 |
| Neel Kashkari | 13% | ▲ 2 | 11¢ | 19¢ | |
| Michelle Bowman | 12% | ▲ 2 | 9¢ | 18¢ | |
| Lorie Logan | 12% | ▼ 1 | 9¢ | 18¢ | 270 |
| Christopher Waller | 8% | ▼ 2 | 7¢ | 11¢ | 382 |
| Michael Barr | 7% | ▲ 2 | 4¢ | 13¢ | |
| Anna Paulson | 7% | ▲ 2 | 4¢ | 13¢ | 4.00 |
| Philip Jefferson | 3% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 135 | |
| Jerome Powell | 3% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 1.0K | |
| John Williams | 3% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 2.9K | |
| Kevin Warsh | 1% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 19.5K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›December 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents
56%Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 056%
- Rate: No change, Dissents: >024%
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >013%▼ 1
- Rate: No change, Dissents: 04%▼ 3
2 more
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >01%
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 01%
How many dissenting votes at the December Fed meeting? (December 2026)
0.33median
-0.505.50
Median 0.33Middle half -0.09 – 1.54
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
70%chance▼ 1
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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