Who will dissent at the December Fed meeting? (December 2026 FOMC)

Kalshi Economy › The Fed Closes Dec 9 · $12 today · $562 traded · $311 at stake · prices read 12 h ago

The odds

17%Beth Hammack

Beth Hammack17%▼ 3
Lisa Cook14%▲ 2
Neel Kashkari13%▲ 2
Michelle Bowman12%▲ 2
Lorie Logan12%▼ 2
Christopher Waller8%▼ 2
Michael Barr7%▲ 2
Anna Paulson7%▲ 2
Philip Jefferson3%▲ 1
Jerome Powell3%▲ 1
John Williams3%▲ 1
Kevin Warsh1%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Beth Hammack: 18% on Oct 29, 17% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Beth Hammack	17%	▼ 3	14¢	24¢	$4.17	490
Lisa Cook	14%	▲ 2	11¢	21¢	$4.76	477
Neel Kashkari	13%	▲ 2	10¢	19¢	$5.26
Michelle Bowman	12%	▲ 2	8¢	18¢	$5.56
Lorie Logan	12%	▼ 2	8¢	18¢	$5.56	270
Christopher Waller	8%	▼ 2	7¢	11¢	$9.09	382
Michael Barr	7%	▲ 2	3¢	13¢	$7.69
Anna Paulson	7%	▲ 2	3¢	13¢	$7.69	2.00
Philip Jefferson	3%	▲ 1		7¢	$14.29	135
Jerome Powell	3%	▲ 1		7¢	$14.29	1.0K
John Williams	3%	▲ 1		6¢	$16.67	2.9K
Kevin Warsh	1%	▼ 1		2¢	$50.00	19.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC

Search ›

Treasury yields ease after Federal Reserve rate holdCNBC · 4 days agoU.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday morning, a day after the Federal Reserve's October meeting that saw the central bank hold its key interest rate steady. At 6 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 5 basis points lower at…
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.75% to 4%Hardware Retailing · 34 h agoAnnie Dameworth October 29, 2026 Industry News, News The Federal Open Market Committee announced it has decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4%, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The…
Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged despite elevated inflationThe Land · 40 h agoFederal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack voted in favor of hiking rates by a quarter point. The Federal Reserve kept its key rate unchanged Wednesday at about 3.9% despite stubbornly high inflation, as Chairman Kevin Warsh…
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady ahead of midterm electionsFox Business · 4 days agoFederal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on the central bank's October interest rate decision. Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady ahead of midterm elections Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on the central bank's October interest…
Federal Reserve makes interest rate decision ahead of midtermsFox Business · 4 days agoNavy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long discusses the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions. This story will be updated with further details from the Fed's October 2026 interest rate decision. The Federal…
WATCH LIVE: Federal Reserve chair holds briefing after interest rate decisionFox News · 4 days agoFederal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh holds a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting. WATCH LIVE: Federal Reserve chair holds briefing after interest rate decision Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh…
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady even as inflation remains highCBS News · 4 days agoUpdated on: October 28, 2026 / 3:11 PM EDT / CBS News The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday after hiking borrowing costs in September to clamp down on inflation. The central bank left the federal funds rate at a…
How’s the market? Mortgage rates and the Federal ReserveThe Ukiah Daily Journal · 3 days agoAny time the Federal Reserve changes the federal funds rate, people start making predictions about how it will affect the markets. In September, the Fed raised rates by a quarter point, moving the target from 3.75% to 4.00%. So the…
Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged despite rising inflationNBC News · 4 days agoThe Federal Reserve on Wednesday voted to keep interest rates unchanged, its final monetary policy decision before the midterm elections. The decision to hold rates steady came despite rising inflation that jumped from 3.4% in August to…
Federal Reserve officials are signaling more interest rate hikes to comeQuartz · 2 days agoSt. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem calls for tightening soon, while Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan sees at least two quarter-point increases St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem and Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie…
Federal Reserve likely to skip rate hike despite elevated inflationtheday.com · 46 h agoWASHINGTON (AP) â The Federal Reserve is expected to stand pat on interest rates Wednesday even though inflation has accelerated in the past couple of months as the Iran war has caused spikes in oil and gas prices.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady despite inflationCBS News · 4 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Fed holds interest…

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All the fed ›

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in December?

70%25 bps increase

25 bps increase70%
No change28%
50+ bps increase1%

2 more

25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

97%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)1%
2 (50 bps)1%

10 more

3 (75 bps)<1%
4 (100 bps)<1%
12+ (300+ bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed rate cut by...?

51%July 2027 Meeting

July 2027 Meeting51%
April 2027 Meeting50%▼ 1
June 2027 Meeting31%▲ 3

4 more

March 2027 Meeting13%▲ 3
January 2027 Meeting9%
December 2026 Meeting1%
October 2026 Meeting<1%

Economy › The Fed

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

70%chance▼ 1

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in January?

70%No change

No change70%▼ 3
25 bps increase25%
25 bps decrease2%

2 more

50+ bps increase1%
50+ bps decrease1%

Economy › The Fed

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

0.04median

-0.5020.5

Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFederal Reserve Board of Governors

Trading closesDec 9, 2026 1:55 PM ET

Traded$562 (25,195 contracts)

Today$12

This week$562

At stake$311

In the news67 headlines today, 1,608 this week

Followed here sinceOct 27, 2026

The rules

If Kevin Warsh formally dissented at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

5Y Yield^FVX · moves with it4.721−1.67%
S&P 500^GSPC · moves with it7,580.07−1.82%
3M T-Bill^IRX · moves with it3.973−0.63%
^TNX^TNX · moves with it
IEFIEF · moves with it
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury BondSHY · moves with it81.72+0.17%
SPYSPY · moves with it755.72−1.77%
TLTTLT · moves with it81.84+0.43%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions