Fed decision in Apr 2027?
66%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate66%▼ 6
- Hike 25bps19%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps10%
- Cut >25bps4%
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
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Fed decision in Mar 2027?
The odds
44%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate44%▲ 2
- Hike 25bps44%▼ 8
- Cut >25bps5%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps4%
- Cut 25bps3%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Fed maintains rate: 44% on Oct 13, 44% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 44% | ▲ 2 | 40¢ | 54¢ | 17.9K |
| Hike 25bps | 44% | ▼ 8 | 45¢ | 56¢ | 18.4K |
| Cut >25bps | 5% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 9¢ | 6.5K |
| Hike >25bps | 4% | 2¢ | 7¢ | 5.4K | |
| Cut 25bps | 3% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 5¢ | 6.2K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Fed Decision in January?
63%No change
- No change63%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase32%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease2%
- 50+ bps increase2%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Fed decision in Jun 2027?
57%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate57%▲ 3
- Hike 25bps28%
- Cut >25bps6%
- Cut 25bps6%
1 more
- Hike >25bps3%▼ 1
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
78%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate78%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps10%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps7%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps6%▼ 2
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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