Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
65%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party65%▲ 2
- Republican Party36%▼ 2
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2028 Senate winner
The odds
53%Democratic party
- Democratic party53%
- Republican party47%
How the odds have moved
Democratic party: 53% on Oct 20, 53% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 53% | 53¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 4.7K | |
| Republican party | 47% | 47¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 2.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate
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64%Democrats sweep
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Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
59%Oil ≥ $85; D Senate
- Oil ≥ $85; D Senate59%▲ 2
- Oil ≥ $85; R Senate30%▼ 1
- Oil < $85; D Senate6%▼ 1
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- Oil < $85; R Senate3%
Texas Senate Election Winner
65%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)65%▲ 3
- Ken Paxton (R)36%▼ 3
Maine Senate winner? (2026)
64%Troy Jackson
- Troy Jackson64%▲ 2
- Susan Collins37%▼ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.