Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Polymarket World › China & Taiwan Closes Dec 31 · $228 today · $257K traded · $43.9K at stake · prices read 6 min ago

The odds

6%Li Xi

Li Xi6%▲ 1
Wang Huning5%
Dong Jun4%
Ding Xuexiang4%▼ 1
Wang Yi3%
Cai Qi3%
Zhang Shengmin2%
Zhao Leji2%
Li Qiang2%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Li Xi	6%	▲ 1	4¢	8¢	$12.35	$31.2K
Wang Huning	5%		3¢	7¢	$15.38	$13.7K
Dong Jun	4%		2¢	7¢	$15.38	$50.9K
Ding Xuexiang	4%	▼ 1	4¢	4¢	$25.00	$28.5K
Wang Yi	3%		2¢	5¢	$21.28	$15.9K
Cai Qi	3%		2¢	3¢	$31.25	$56.3K
Zhang Shengmin	2%		2¢	2¢	$43.48	$33.7K
Zhao Leji	2%		1¢	3¢	$40.00	$13.1K
Li Qiang	2%		1¢	2¢	$45.45	$13.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: China, Taiwan, Xi Jinping

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$257K

Today$228

This week$257K

At stake$43.9K

In the news620 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 1) The listed individual is removed or resigns from their primary political post or from their position, if any, on the Chinese Politburo or its standing committee, with a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor. 2) The listed individual is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Qualifying announcements and repor

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.