The Americas odds

Every The Americas market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.

271 open markets · $7.3M traded today

Trending the americas markets

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

73%Nicolás Maduro

Nicolás Maduro73%▲ 1
Delcy Rodríguez18%▼ 4
No Head of State2%
María Corina Machado1%

12 more

Jorge Rodríguez<1%
Edmundo González<1%
Marco Rubio<1%
Pete Hegseth<1%
Frank Donovan<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón<1%
Dinorah Figuera<1%
Donald Trump<1%
Vladimir Padrino López<1%
Evan Pettus<1%
Dan Caine<1%
Richard Grenell<1%

US military action against Cuba by...?

10%December 31

December 3110%▼ 2

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

4%December 31

December 314%▲ 1

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

7%chance▼ 1

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

9%December 31

December 319%

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

1%chance

Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?

10%December 31

December 3110%

Will Venezuela become 51st state?

2%chance

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

9%chance▼ 1

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

13%chance▲ 5

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

3%chance

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

5%chance

Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

27%Ricardo Ruiz Velasco

Ricardo Ruiz Velasco27%▲ 7
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar16%
Juan Reyes Mejía González15%▲ 2
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar14%▼ 4

3 more

Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan10%
Juan Pablo Ledezma10%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez10%

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

4%chance

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

3%chance

Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by...?

27%December 31

December 3127%▼ 22

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

Nov 22, 2027even chance by

October 3137%▲ 5
December 3176%▼ 6

Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?

13%chance▲ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?1% Closes today 11:59 PM ET

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.

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