Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
6%chance▲ 1
Install
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
The odds
81%Nicolás Maduro
- Nicolás Maduro81%▲ 5
- Delcy Rodríguez17%▼ 4
- No Head of State1%
- Edmundo González1%
- María Corina Machado<1%▼ 1
- Marco Rubio<1%
- Jorge Rodríguez<1%
- Pete Hegseth<1%
- Frank Donovan<1%
- Diosdado Cabello Rondón<1%
- Dinorah Figuera<1%
- Donald Trump<1%
4 more
- Vladimir Padrino López<1%
- Evan Pettus<1%
- Dan Caine<1%
- Richard Grenell<1%
How the odds have moved
Nicolás Maduro: 73% on Oct 20, 81% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 81% | ▲ 5 | 81¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | $3.8M |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 17% | ▼ 4 | 16¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | $2.5M |
| No Head of State | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1.7M | ||
| Edmundo González | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $1.5M | ||
| María Corina Machado | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1.6M | |
| Marco Rubio | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1.5M | ||
| Jorge Rodríguez | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1.3M | ||
| Pete Hegseth | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $9.3M | ||
| Frank Donovan | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $26M | ||
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | <1% | 0¢ | $2.2M | |||
| Dinorah Figuera | <1% | 0¢ | $3.1M | |||
| Donald Trump | <1% | 0¢ | $1.2M | |||
| Vladimir Padrino López | <1% | 0¢ | $891K | |||
| Evan Pettus | <1% | 0¢ | $5.7M | |||
| Dan Caine | <1% | 0¢ | $4.2M | |||
| Richard Grenell | <1% | 0¢ | $32.8M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Venezuela, Maduro, Nicolás Maduro
Search ›-
Delcy Rodriguez: Latest News and UpdatesThe latest news and top stories on Delcy Rodriguez, the interim president of Venezuela. Following the abduction of leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife in a US military operation on January 3, 2026, Rodriguez was sworn in as the country’s… -
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returns to Venezuela from exile for first time since Maduro’s ousterNobel Prize-winning opposition leader María Corina Machado reemerged from exile in Venezuela on Sunday for the first time since late last year, when she fled due to fears about her safety. Machado, who had been banned from running for… -
Marco Rubio Sends Warning to Delcy Rodríguez and María Corina Machado After Opposition Leader's ReturnSecretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a two-sided message after María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela: Delcy Rodríguez's government must respect political freedoms, and the opposition is expected to support the negotiations… -
Former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, wife face new charges over alleged tortureFederal prosecutors in New York on Thursday unsealed new charges against ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro that accuse him of conspiring with his wife to torture individuals who were held in Venezuelan prisons. The new indictment… - Machado ya está en Venezuela. Su desafío ahora es presionar a Delcy Rodríguez sin incordiar a EE.UU.Análisis por Alfredo Meza, CNN en Español El regreso de Maria Corina Machado a Venezuela desafía el plan de transición diseñado por el Departamento de Estado, pone presión sobre los hombros de la presidenta encargada del país, Delcy…
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Exiled Venezuelan opposition leader announces her returnNobel laureate María Corina Machado’s return after almost a year in exile is unlikely to please interim president Delcy Rodríguez The Venezuelan opposition leader, María Corina Machado, has announced she has returned to Venezuela, almost a… -
Opposition leader Machado returns to Venezuela from exileAfter more than 10 months in exile, Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado has returned home to a political landscape that has been reshaped by her ally the United States without her involvement. “I am here… -
Crowds welcome Venezuela's María Machado after months in exileVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado has returned home after more than 10 months in exile. "I am here. With you," Machado wrote on X on Sunday. Her return came after several prior efforts to re-enter the country came to no… -
Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado returns after months in exileCARACAS, Venezuela — Opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado reappeared in Venezuela Sunday for the first time since December, about a month before the U.S. military deposed the country's then-President Nicolás Maduro… -
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado makes surprise return home after nearly a year abroadVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado joins Rachel Campos-Duffy in Panama to warn Americans about the dangers of socialism ahead of the midterms. Machado shares a direct message to President Donald Trump, praising his… -
Venezuelan opposition leader María Machado returns after months in exileVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado has returned home to a fraught political landscape after over 10 months in exile. "I am here. With you," Machado wrote on X on Sunday. Her ally, former presidential candidate Edmundo… -
Venezuelans in South Florida weigh Maria Corina Machado's return and what comes next for the countryOctober 25, 2026 / 8:11 PM EDT / CBS Miami Patrons at a Venezuelan restaurant in South Florida gathered Sunday to discuss news of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado's return to Venezuela, weighing questions about the country's future…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions