US military action against Cuba by...?

Polymarket World › The Americas Closes Dec 31 · $4.8K today · $7.7M traded · $357K at stake · prices read 2 min ago

The odds

10%December 31

December 3110%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

December 31: 9% on Oct 20, 10% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
January 31	<1%			0¢		$534K
March 31	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$1.6M
December 31	10%	▲ 1	9¢	10¢	$10.00	$5.5M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Cuba

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Rubio urges Cuban dissidents to partner with CIAFox News · 37 h agoPresident Donald Trump speaks in Fort Myers, Florida, about taking care of Cuba as Secretary of State Marco Rubio urges Cuban dissidents to partner with the CIA. Rubio urges Cuban dissidents to partner with CIA President Donald Trump…
Cuba spent decades recruiting American spies. Now Washington is turning the tables on HavanaFox News · 17 h agoPresident Donald Trump speaks in Fort Myers, Florida, about taking care of Cuba as Secretary of State Marco Rubio urges Cuban dissidents to partner with the CIA. Cuba’s government has spent decades recruiting Americans to betray their…
AP says U.S. secretly built "Cuban Twitter" called ZunZuneo to thwart Cuba censorship, but was it legal?CBS News · 3 days agoUpdated on: April 3, 2014 / 10:58 AM EDT / CBS/AP WASHINGTON -- In July 2010, Joe McSpedon, a U.S. government official, flew to Barcelona to put the final touches on a secret plan to build a social media project aimed at undermining Cuba's…
Rubio calls on Cubans seeking "positive change" to work with CIA: "Now is the time"CBS News · 39 h agoOctober 24, 2026 / 11:49 AM EDT / CBS News U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on Cubans seeking "positive change" to work with the CIA, the latest ploy in the growing efforts from the Trump administration to remove Cuba's communist…
Rubio tells Cubans ‘now is the time’ to act to see political changethe Guardian · 2 days agoUS secretary of state makes comments after Trump tells US rally warships could intervene on return from Iran Marco Rubio urged Cubans seeking political change in their country to act, saying “now is the time” moments after Donald Trump…
Trump riffs on US warships, Cuba and Rubio after question from crowdFox News · 2 days agoPresident Donald Trump teases U.S. warships could stop near Cuba after Iran, and send Secretary of State Marco Rubio in to "finish the job," during a midterm rally speech Friday in Fort Myers, Florida ... Trump riffs on US warships, Cuba…
Rubio urges Cubans to work with CIA to bring political change to communist-run islandFox News · 2 days agoPresident Donald Trump teases that U.S. warships could stop near Cuba after Iran and send Secretary of State Marco Rubio in to "finish the job," during a midterm rally speech Friday, Oct. 23, 2026, in Fort Myers, Florida. Secretary of…
Rubio urges Cubans to collaborate with CIA for regime change as U.S. intensifies pressure on CubaSSBCrack News · 34 h agoAt SSBCrack News, our dedicated editorial team brings you the latest and most reliable updates on Defence, Geopolitics, Military Affairs, Science, and Technology. Driven by a passion for national security and strategic awareness, the…
Cuba mocks US 'desperation' calling on Cubans to work with CIAARY News · 2 days agoHAVANA, Cuba: Havana on Friday mocked the “desperation” of the United States after it called for Cubans to collaborate with the CIA, as Washington intensifies its pressure on the communist island. “Now the United States is resorting to…
“Eyeball to Eyeball”—Cuban Missile Crisis, Day NineCouncil on Foreign Relations · 23 h agoPresident John F. Kennedy’s hopes rise and then fall that the naval quarantine of Cuba will quickly end the missile crisis. At the suggestion of the British ambassador, Kennedy ordered the quarantine line to be reduced to five hundred…
Cuba mocks US ‘desperation’ after Rubio urges Cubans to work with CIA@arabnews · 2 days agoHAVANA: Cuba on Friday mocked what it called US “desperation” after Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged Cubans seeking political change to establish discreet ties with the CIA, as President Donald Trump renewed suggestions of possible US…
India, Cuba discuss strengthening parliamentary exchanges, cooperation in healthcarethehansindia.com · 16 h agoLok Sabha Speaker Om Birla on Sunday met Cuba’s National Assembly of People’s New Delhi: Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla on Sunday met Cuba’s National Assembly of People’s Power and the Council of State Vice President Ana Maria Mari Machado…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$7.7M

Today$4.8K

This week$33.7K

At stake$357K

In the news20 headlines today, 660 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but exc

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions