Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

Polymarket World › The Americas Closes Dec 31 · $118 today · $195K traded · $4.4K at stake · prices read 18 min ago

The odds

15%Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar

Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar15%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar15%▲ 1
Juan Pablo Ledezma14%▼ 1
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan13%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco12%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez12%
Juan Reyes Mejía González11%▼ 2

How the odds have moved

Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar: 15% on Oct 20, 15% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
✓ Audias Flores-Silva	>99%	▲ 23	1¢	99¢	$1.01	$5.9K
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar	15%		12¢	18¢	$5.49	$11.1K
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar	15%	▲ 1	10¢	20¢	$5.00	$7.3K
Juan Pablo Ledezma	14%	▼ 1	13¢	14¢	$7.14	$2.7K
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan	13%		7¢	20¢	$5.00	$5.4K
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco	12%		8¢	16¢	$6.17	$63.6K
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez	12%		10¢	13¢	$7.69	$60.5K
Juan Reyes Mejía González	11%	▼ 2	8¢	13¢	$7.69	$38.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar, Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar, Juan Pablo Ledezma

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$195K

Today$118

This week$3.5K

At stake$4.4K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions