Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Polymarket World › The Americas Closes Dec 31 · $209 today · $2.3M traded · $106K at stake · prices read 34 min ago

The odds

8%December 31

December 318%

How the odds have moved

December 31: 9% on Oct 20, 8% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
March 31	<1%		0¢		$421K
June 30	<1%		0¢		$1.1M
December 31	8%	7¢	9¢	$11.11	$781K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Miguel Díaz-Canel, Cuba

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Cuban FM denounces Trump’s new military threatSunday World · 3 days agoCuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez on Friday denounced a new threat of military intervention against the Caribbean nation by US President Donald Trump. In a post on X, Rodriguez rejected “any threat regarding US ambitions toward Cuba”…
Morales Ojeda Asserts Cuban Policy Shouldn't Be Influenced by CoercionCubaHeadlines · 3 days agoSaturday, October 24, 2026 by Aaron Delgado Roberto Morales Ojeda, the Secretary of Organization for the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC), declared on Saturday that "no policy towards Cuba should be shaped by…
Trump Floats Ships Off Cuba, Havana RejectsThe Rio Times · 3 days agoThis story is part of our coverage of the cuba news. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide. Latest: Second US Aid Flight Lands in Matanzas, Cuba Trump told the rally the United States would “take care of Cuba on our way back…
Military Display by Díaz-Canel Sparks Mockery Among CubansCubaHeadlines · 3 days agoSaturday, October 24, 2026 by Alex Smith In a recent appearance, Cuban President and head of the National Defense Council, Miguel Díaz-Canel, donned military attire, leading to a wave of mockery and skepticism on social media. Many users…
The Trump Administration Is Intensifying Threats Of Regime Change In Cuba Before The MidtermsInternational Business Times · 3 days agoBoth President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted that a U.S. military operation against Cuba, a longstanding ideological adversary of the U.S., could be imminent. Rubio, who is himself of Cuban descent and has been…
Díaz-Canel Challenges Trump's Remarks, Upholds 1959 as True Independence Day for CubaCubaHeadlines · 3 days agoSaturday, October 24, 2026 by Alexander Flores Miguel Díaz-Canel, the President of Cuba, took to Facebook on Friday to counter Donald Trump's statements about Cuba. In his post, Díaz-Canel accused the United States of harboring ambitions…
Who Runs Cuba’s Economy, the Key Players in 2026The Rio Times · 3 days agoThis guide names who controls Cuba’s money, mines, hotels and power as of October 2026. US sanctions now shape what each of them can do. The Cuba economy is run by the state, and its biggest piece sits inside GAESA. That military…
China Condemns U.S. Arrest Warrant for Raúl Castro, Paying Lip Service to Cuba Without Actually HelpingBreitbart · 5 days agoThe Chinese Foreign Ministry belatedly condemned on Wednesday the issuing of an arrest warrant by Florida authorities for Raúl Castro, the 95-year-old communist dictator of Cuba, referring to the widely hated repressor as a “venerated…
Venezuela’s PSUV Rejects US Warrant for Raúl Castro’s Arrest, Reaffirms Solidarity With CubaOrinoco Tribune · 4 days agoCaracas (OrinocoTribune.com)—The ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) rejected the US arrest warrant issued for Cuban revolutionary leader Raúl Castro, describing the warrant as an imperialist act of intimidation and…
The UJC is seeking young people in the neighborhoods of Las Tunas to promote its campaign "The size is to do."CiberCuba · 3 days agoSaturday, October 24, 2026 - 7:09 PM The first national secretary of the Young Communist Union (UJC), Meyvis Estévez Echevarría, visited neighborhoods in Las Tunas to promote youth participation in the campaign "The size is to act," just a…
Rubio urges Cuban dissidents to partner with CIAFox News · 3 days agoPresident Donald Trump speaks in Fort Myers, Florida, about taking care of Cuba as Secretary of State Marco Rubio urges Cuban dissidents to partner with the CIA. Rubio urges Cuban dissidents to partner with CIA President Donald Trump…
AP says U.S. secretly built "Cuban Twitter" called ZunZuneo to thwart Cuba censorship, but was it legal?CBS News · 4 days agoUpdated on: April 3, 2014 / 10:58 AM EDT / CBS/AP WASHINGTON -- In July 2010, Joe McSpedon, a U.S. government official, flew to Barcelona to put the final touches on a secret plan to build a social media project aimed at undermining Cuba's…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$2.3M

Today$209

This week$26.2K

At stake$106K

In the news30 headlines today, 448 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions