US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
65%October 22
- October 2265%
- October 2465%▲ 2
- October 2865%▼ 1
6 more
- October 3165%▲ 4
- November 865%▲ 1
- November 1565%▼ 1
- November 2265%▼ 1
- November 3065%▲ 1
- December 3165%▲ 1
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Netanyahu out by...?
The odds
40%December 31
- December 3140%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
December 31: 42% on Oct 20, 40% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $104M | |||
| April 30 | <1% | 0¢ | $9.6M | |||
| May 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $821K | |||
| June 30 | <1% | 0¢ | $6.9M | |||
| July 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $332K | |||
| December 31 | 40% | ▼ 2 | 39¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | $2.8M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu
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The Stakes for Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli ElectionPaul Gigot interviews ‘In the War Room’ Co-Author Elliot Kaufman The Stakes for Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli Election Paul Gigot interviews ‘In the War Room’ Co-Author Elliot Kaufman -
Why a far-right cabinet minister in Israel has Netanyahu's earIsrael's most far-right cabinet minister helped dictate hardline policies toward Palestinians in recent years. Benjamin Netanyahu vows to give him a senior position if Netanyahu is reelected next week. Why a far-right cabinet minister in… -
Thousands of Israelis rally against Netanyahu gov’t days before electionOpposition figures join Tel Aviv protesters demanding an independent October 7 inquiry. Thousands of Israelis are protesting against the government and calling for an independent inquiry into the security failures that led to the October… -
BBC Audio | From Our Own Correspondent | Israel elections: Netanyahu's big testKate Adie introduces stories from Israel, Albania, the US and Chile. Israel goes to the polls on Tuesday in a pivotal vote on the future direction of the country. Israel's longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is facing a… -
Why Israel’s election is more than a referendum on Netanyahu | CNNIsraelis vote Tuesday in their first election since the October 7, 2023 attack. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces his former military chief, Gadi Eisenkot. CNN’s Oren Liebermann explains why neither likely has a clear path to… -
Netanyahu Considering Crypto Plan to Dodge Banking Sanctions on IsraelIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he has asked for a plan to use cryptocurrency and blockchain networks to help Israel get around possible banking sanctions. He made the comments in an interview on Israel’s Channel 10, four… -
The Israelis Flying 6,000 Miles to Vote Against NetanyahuOct 23, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT For Oran, a 36-year-old Israeli living in Williamsburg, Brooklyn, the decision to fly home for Israel's October 27 election is partly about politics and partly about being able to live with himself decades from… -
Former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot who could displace Netanyahu touts ‘deep bonds’ with USFormer Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, who hopes to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tuesday’s elections, is touting the “deep bonds” between Israel and the US at a time when American support for the Jewish… -
Netanyahu announces Israel will lock down part of West Bank after shootingCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Israel plans to… -
Netanyahu orders ‘very extensive’ operation in West Bank after two Israeli soldiers killedIsrael’s prime minister gives order after military says it thwarted ‘terror attack’ by two armed Palestinians Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the army to prepare for a “very extensive” operation in the occupied West Bank after two Israeli… -
As a divided Israel prepares to go to the polls, can Netanyahu pull off his greatest political trick yet?The prime minister has defined and dominated his country’s politics for three decades and is putting his rivals on the defensive before Tuesday’s general election Naturally, the warm-up speakers at this evening rally in the modest city of… -
Israel's Netanyahu vows major military operation, cordons off major West Bank city after attackUpdated on: October 23, 2026 / 8:24 AM EDT / CBS News Tel Aviv — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday that he had ordered a major military operation in the occupied West Bank and told troops to cordon off a large city in…
Related markets
All middle east ›Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
50%Gadi Eizenkot
- Gadi Eizenkot50%▼ 1
- Benjamin Netanyahu29%▲ 2
- Naftali Bennett17%▲ 2
16 more
- Avigdor Lieberman1%▼ 1
- Israel Katz<1%
- Moshe Feiglin<1%
- Amir Ohana<1%
- Yossi Cohen<1%
- Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
- Yair Lapid<1%
- Benny Gantz<1%
- Yair Golan<1%
- Gideon Sa’ar<1%
- Yariv Levin<1%
- Ayelet Shaked<1%
- Yoaz Hendel<1%
- Nir Barkat<1%
- Gilad Erdan<1%
- Ofer Winter<1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
71%October 24
- October 2471%▲ 1
- October 2771%▲ 2
- October 3171%▼ 1
3 more
- November 1571%▲ 6
- November 3071%▼ 1
- December 3171%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
20%chance▲ 1
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
36%December 31
- March 3129%▲ 1
- October 3129%
- November 3029%▲ 1
1 more
- December 3136%▲ 2
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
17%December 31
- October 311%▼ 1
- November 308%▼ 3
- December 3117%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions