US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
63%October 22
- October 2263%
- October 2463%▼ 2
- October 2863%▼ 3
6 more
- October 3163%▼ 3
- November 863%▲ 2
- November 1563%▼ 2
- November 2263%▼ 3
- November 3063%▼ 3
- December 3163%▼ 4
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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
The odds
19%December 31
- October 311%▼ 1
- November 308%▼ 1
- December 3119%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
October 31: 2% on Oct 20, 1% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $33K | |||
| April 30 | <1% | 0¢ | $1.7M | |||
| May 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $1.3M | |||
| June 15 | <1% | 0¢ | $221K | |||
| June 22 | <1% | 0¢ | $129K | |||
| June 30 | <1% | 0¢ | $1.2M | |||
| July 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $1.4M | |||
| August 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $2.6M | |||
| September 15 | <1% | 0¢ | $831K | |||
| September 30 | <1% | 0¢ | $4.2M | |||
| October 31 | 1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 1¢ | $71.43 | $1.6M |
| November 30 | 8% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $133K |
| December 31 | 19% | ▲ 1 | 18¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | $1.9M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Mandeb Strait
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Iran’s IRGC warns blockade could extend to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Suez CanalIran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Monday that Tehran has not yet completely closed the Strait of Hormuz and can expand the scope of the blockade to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal, Tehran Times reported… -
Eight Regional, European Countries Call For Dialogue To Resolve ConflictsPublished : October 24, 2026 at 9:01 PM IST Islamabad: Eight regional and European countries called for dialogue and diplomacy to resolve conflicts, including the US-Iran hostilities and the Israel-Palestine issue, according to a joint… -
Ethiopia Calls for Shared Red Sea SecurityETHIOPIA · RED SEA SECURITY Ethiopia’s intelligence chief says no handful of countries can keep the Red Sea safe alone. He spoke on Friday, 23 October, as a regional security forum opened in Bahir Dar. Ethiopia called for shared Red Sea… -
Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia call on Houthis to stop attacks on Saudi ArabiaThe foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia also emphasized that the Israeli occupation is the main source of instability in the region and beyond - Russian Politics & Diplomacy Russian Politics & DiplomacyInto… -
China Uses Djibouti Outpost to Assert Itself on Houthi AttacksChina and Djibouti released a joint communique on Thursday supporting freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which are currently under threat from the Iran-backed Houthi insurgents of Yemen. The statement was issued… -
The World’s Oil Reserves Just Got Handed a Stress Test: One Analyst Warns the Real Worry Isn’t the Price of Oil but the SupplyOil prices are nearly as high as they were at the start of the war with Iran, but one analyst argues the bigger worry is supply. Gulf flows have rebounded, yet a closure of Hormuz or the Bab al-Mandeb would squeeze reserves and send prices… -
Britain Deploys Royal Air Force to Support Saudi Monarchy Against Yemeni ResistancePrime Minister Andy Burham says the fighter jets are only there for “defensive purposes” while the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is facing monumental defeats against the Ansur Allah As the Yemeni resistance movement, the Ansur Allah, carries on… -
Houthis Target 4 Saudi Airports and Yanbu After Sanaa RaidsYahya Saree announced on Telegram that Ansar Allah had “carried out seven military operations using ballistic missiles and drones” against Saudi oil facilities and airports, according to Apa.az and France 24. The claimed targets spanned… -
Riyadh airport to resume flights despite renewed Houthi threatsKing Khalid International Airport in Riyadh is preparing to restore domestic and international flight operations on Sunday following disruptions caused by missile and drone attacks launched by the Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist group, the… -
Syrian Govt Accuses ‘Outlaw Groups’ of Blocking Sweida-Damascus HighwayThe "outlaw groups", affiliated with Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri reportedly blocked around 100 employees from reaching their workplaces in northern Sweida on Wednesday and had previously prevented students from travelling… -
Saudi Arabia intercepts 10 Houthi missiles as rebels threaten Riyadh airport after deadly attackSaudi Arabia said its air defences intercepted 10 ballistic missiles fired by Yemen's Houthi rebels towards the kingdom's southern region on Sunday, as the country faced a fresh wave of missile and drone attacks amid escalating regional… -
Middle East mayhem: Oil prices jump US$3 on Houthi attacks, oil spill, highest settlement since AprilTHE MIDDLE EAST (Reuters): Oil prices settled more than $3 higher on Friday night, their highest in nearly six months after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concerns over further disruption to energy supplies from the Middle East…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions