US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
66%October 22
- October 2266%▼ 1
- October 2466%▼ 5
- October 2866%▼ 3
6 more
- October 3166%▼ 4
- November 866%▼ 7
- November 1566%▼ 4
- November 2266%▼ 1
- November 3066%
- December 3166%▼ 2
Install
Iran leadership change by...?
The odds
13%December 31
- June 30, 202712%
- October 3112%
- November 3012%▲ 1
- December 3113%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 13 | <1% | 0¢ | ||||
| March 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $3.2M | |||
| April 30 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $5M | ||
| May 31 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $3.4M | ||
| June 30, 2027 | 12% | 25¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | $434K | |
| June 30 | <1% | 0¢ | $4.4M | |||
| July 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $1.6M | |||
| August 15 | <1% | 0¢ | $61.8K | |||
| August 22 | <1% | 0¢ | $79.5K | |||
| August 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $1.6M | |||
| September 30 | <1% | 0¢ | $1.7M | |||
| October 31 | 12% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | $689K | |
| November 30 | 12% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | $221K |
| December 31 | 13% | ▲ 1 | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | $5.3M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.