Fed Decision in Oct 2026
93%0bps (Unchanged)
- 0bps (Unchanged)93%
- Hike <=25bps6%
- Cut <=25bps2%
- Hike >25bps2%
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Install
Fed Decision in October?
The odds
94%No change
- No change94%
- 25 bps increase5%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How the odds have moved
No change: 85% on Oct 20, 94% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 94% | 94¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | $20.1M | |
| 25 bps increase | 5% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $15.4M |
| 50+ bps increase | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $9.8M | ||
| 25 bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $11.2M | ||
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $9.8M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Crypto.com
- Fed Decision in October?Cut 25 bpPolymarket <1%Crypto.com 2%2 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on ForecastEx
- Fed Decision in October?HoldPolymarket 94%ForecastEx 90%4 pts apart
Fed Decision (Oct 28, 2026)
90%Hold
- Hold90%
- Hike 25 bp5%
- Hike 50+ bp4%
- Cut 25 bp1%
1 more
- Cut 50+ bp1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Kalshi
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?HoldKalshi 93%Polymarket 94%1 pts apart
Fed decision in Oct 2026?
93%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate93%▲ 1
- Hike 25bps6%
- Cut >25bps<1%
- Cut 25bps<1%
1 more
- Hike >25bps<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›-
Can the Federal Reserve Keep Rates High Without Breaking Something?Although the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October 27-28 meeting, the bigger problem remains. Inflation is still stubborn, oil is well above $100, and US borrowing costs are… -
Trump Forms Committee to Probe Federal Reserve’s Lisa CookPresident Donald Trump on Oct. 9 announced a new committee to investigate whether a Federal Reserve governor made false statements. The committee will probe allegations that Lisa Cook, governor of the Federal Reserve, offered false… -
Ethereum Faces Downside Pressure as Arthur Hayes Sells Holdings Ahead of Make-or-Break Federal Reserve MeetingEthereum has slipped back toward the $2,350 to $2,380 range, dragged down in part by high-profile asset dumps from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, while Bitcoin tests vital support at $80,500. One of the primary catalysts driving social… -
President Donald Trump Just Proclaimed, "Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation, They Cause Wealth," but Data From Federal Reserve Economists Show OtherwiseHowever, this doesn't mean that all of the president's policies are necessarily well-received on Wall Street. For example, Trumpflation (inflation specifically driven by Donald Trump's policies) is a genuine threat to the artificial… - September Jobs Data Set to Influence Federal Reserve’s Rate Strategy as Futures ClimbU.S. stock futures advanced during Friday’s pre-market session as market participants prepared for employment figures that may influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance on borrowing costs. S&P 500 futures increased 0.4%, while…
-
Inflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy weekThey all arrive just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections that will determine the future makeup of Congress as the U.S. economy grapples with constantly shifting global trade conflicts and a global oil shortage brought on by the U.S… -
Seoul stocks open lower ahead of earnings reports, Fed decisionKorean stocks opened lower Monday as investors awaited major chipmakers’ earnings and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision later this week amid rising oil prices. The KOSPI fell 51.25 points, or 0.92 percent, to 5,499.05 at… -
(LEAD) Seoul stocks open lower ahead of earnings reports, Fed decisionSEOUL, Oct. 26 (Yonhap) -- South Korean stocks opened lower Monday as investors awaited third-quarter earnings from major chipmakers and the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision later this week amid rising oil prices. After… -
Fed’s Forecast Fight Gets Nobel SpotlightThe latest Nobel Prize in economics has revived a familiar debate in Washington over whether central bankers should lean on formal forecasts or trust their instincts. This year’s winners have drawn attention for defending the value of… -
Everyday Economics: The Fed can pause. Americans still won’t get much reliefEveryday Economics: The Fed can pause. Americans still wonât get much relief - The Black Chronicle Financial markets expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged this week. That remains my expectation. But the case for… -
Wall Street week ahead: Big tech earnings and Fed decision to test US stock rallyUS stock investors are preparing for an important week as major technology companies report their quarterly earnings and the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Both events could test the strength of the… -
Fed policy, Q2 earnings, crude oil prices among key market triggers next weekStock market investors will closely track the US Federal Reserve's policy decision Mumbai: Stock market investors will closely track the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, a packed corporate earnings calendar, crude oil price movements…
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed Decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%
- No change20%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
Fed Decision in January?
68%No change
- No change68%
- 25 bps increase28%
- 50+ bps increase1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
75%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike75%
- Hike–Pause–Pause21%▼ 1
- Hike–Hike–Hike2%▼ 1
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Pause2%
- Other1%
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
72%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)72%▲ 2
- 1 (25 bps)22%
- 3 (75 bps)5%▼ 1
2 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
77%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions