Fed Decision (Oct 28, 2026)
84%Hold
- Hold84%
- Hike 25 bp10%
- Hike 50+ bp4%
- Cut 25 bp1%
1 more
- Cut 50+ bp1%
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Fed Decision in Oct 2026
The odds
85%0bps (Unchanged)
- 0bps (Unchanged)85%
- Hike <=25bps12%
- Cut <=25bps2%
- Hike >25bps2%
- Cut >25bps1%
How the odds have moved
0bps (Unchanged): 84% on Oct 20, 85% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Crypto.com. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0bps (Unchanged) | 85% | 85¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 54.00 | |
| Hike <=25bps | 12% | 11¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 62.00 | |
| Cut <=25bps | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 93.00 | ||
| Hike >25bps | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 3¢ | $33.33 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on ForecastEx
- Fed Decision (Oct 28, 2026)Hike 50+ bpForecastEx 4%Crypto.com 2%2 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Kalshi
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?HoldKalshi 87%Crypto.com 85%2 pts apart
Fed decision in Oct 2026?
87%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate87%
- Hike 25bps12%
- Cut >25bps<1%
- Cut 25bps<1%
1 more
- Hike >25bps<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- Fed Decision in October?Cut 25 bpPolymarket <1%Crypto.com 2%2 pts apart
Fed Decision in October?
87%No change
- No change87%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase13%▼ 1
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›-
FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Board building is seen in WashingtonThe Daily News | Texas' Oldest Newspaper - Judge dismisses $100 million Moody lawsuit against Galveston attorney - Latitude Margaritaville developer closes on 1,318-acre Texas City tract - Mystery mailers targeting Texas families raise… -
Federal Reserve seen holding rates in October, then hiking in DecemberFederal Reserve policymakers are expected to pause on interest rates at their October meeting even as inflation remains elevated and economic growth stays firm. Economists surveyed this week increasingly see a December hike as the more… -
Federal Reserve seen skipping Oct rate hike but hiking in Dec - Reuters pollInvesting.com - The Federal Reserve is set to keep interest rates steady at the central bank's next monetary policy meeting later this month, but raise borrowing costs once again in December, according to a Reuters poll released on… -
Federal Reserve issues chilling warning to 3.1M US homeowners and every American with a credit card — act before Oct. 28The Federal Reserve's latest message could reach well beyond Wall Street — straight into your credit card statement and, for some homeowners, the monthly bill that keeps a roof over your head. Buried in the minutes (1) of its September… -
Housing is flashing warning signs just as the Fed weighs more interest rate hikesThe Federal Reserve's inflation fight is running into a growing complication: The housing market is slumping even as broader price pressures persist. Housing data deteriorated further in September, according to separate reports Tuesday… -
Dusty May Says Dwight Powell ‘Exemplified Everything’ Mavericks WantDALLAS — Dusty May started Monday's availability by thanking Dwight Powell, on the day the Dallas Mavericks let the longtime center go. Powell spent May's first training camp in Dallas on a one-year, minimum-salary contract that carried a… -
Business inflation expectations decelerate in October: Atlanta FedTradingView Business inflation expectations decelerate in October: Atlanta Fed Year-ahead business inflation expectations stood at +2.3% in October, vs. +2.4% in September, according to a survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of… -
The Federal Reserve Just Warned More Rate Hikes Are Likely Coming. History Has Good and Bad News for InvestorsAnd the Fed just warned that more rate hikes are likely coming. Against this backdrop, history has good and bad news for investors. First, though, let's start with a summary of the market situation over the past few years. As mentioned… -
View / The AI boom doesn’t answer to the FedAI giants keep borrowing as rates rise, blunting the central bank’s main tool against inflation. Lizâs viewOne rule of investing is âdonât fight the Fed.â Playing the contrarian to the Federal Reserveâs plans to stimulate or… -
Bitcoin holds $82,500, faces test of breaking out of range ahead of U.S. FOMC$82,500 has been suggested as bitcoin's near-term defensive line. On Oct. 20, blockchain media outlet U.Today reported that crypto market maker Wintermute said the current price compression phase is unlikely to last long. It pointed to… -
Gold gains, silver slips as oil prices rise, Fed rate hike expectations persist - Kitco AM Report(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold prices were slightly higher and spot silver prices were lower in early U.S. trading Wednesday, as renewed concerns about energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and persistent expectations for additional… -
Attention Bitcoin (BTC) Investors! Analyst Reveals Expectations Ahead of FED Meeting, Shares Two Critical Levels He’s Monitoring!One analyst stated that he expects Bitcoin to trade sideways in the $80,000-$84,000 range before the FED decision. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, recovered after a brief dip below $80,000 and rose above $83,000. While the future…
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed Decision in December?
78%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase78%▲ 1
- No change18%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase2%▼ 1
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed Decision in January?
60%No change
- No change60%▲ 3
- 25 bps increase37%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
70%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)70%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)21%
- 3 (75 bps)9%▼ 1
2 more
- 4 (100 bps)1%
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
70%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike70%▲ 3
- Hike–Pause–Pause18%▼ 1
- Hike–Hike–Hike9%▼ 2
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Pause2%
- Other1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.