Fed Decision in Oct 2026
94%0bps (Unchanged)
- 0bps (Unchanged)94%
- Hike <=25bps5%
- Cut <=25bps2%
- Hike >25bps2%
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Install
Fed decision in Oct 2026?
The odds
93%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate93%▲ 1
- Hike 25bps5%▼ 2
- Cut >25bps1%
- Cut 25bps1%
- Hike >25bps1%
How the odds have moved
Fed maintains rate: 85% on Oct 20, 93% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 93% | ▲ 1 | 93¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 7.4M |
| Hike 25bps | 5% | ▼ 2 | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 5.3M |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 246.6K | ||
| Cut 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 1.5M | ||
| Hike >25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 1.0M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Crypto.com
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?Cut 25 bpKalshi 1%Crypto.com 2%2 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on ForecastEx
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?HoldKalshi 93%ForecastEx 90%3 pts apart
Fed Decision (Oct 28, 2026)
90%Hold
- Hold90%
- Hike 25 bp5%
- Hike 50+ bp4%
- Cut 25 bp1%
1 more
- Cut 50+ bp1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?HoldKalshi 93%Polymarket 95%2 pts apart
Fed Decision in October?
95%No change
- No change95%▲ 2
- 25 bps increase4%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›-
President Donald Trump Just Proclaimed, "Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation, They Cause Wealth," but Data From Federal Reserve Economists Show OtherwiseHowever, this doesn't mean that all of the president's policies are necessarily well-received on Wall Street. For example, Trumpflation (inflation specifically driven by Donald Trump's policies) is a genuine threat to the artificial… -
Ethereum Faces Downside Pressure as Arthur Hayes Sells Holdings Ahead of Make-or-Break Federal Reserve MeetingEthereum has slipped back toward the $2,350 to $2,380 range, dragged down in part by high-profile asset dumps from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, while Bitcoin tests vital support at $80,500. One of the primary catalysts driving social… - September Jobs Data Set to Influence Federal Reserve’s Rate Strategy as Futures ClimbU.S. stock futures advanced during Friday’s pre-market session as market participants prepared for employment figures that may influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance on borrowing costs. S&P 500 futures increased 0.4%, while…
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Inflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy weekThey all arrive just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections that will determine the future makeup of Congress as the U.S. economy grapples with constantly shifting global trade conflicts and a global oil shortage brought on by the U.S… -
Fed expected to hold rates steady days ahead of U.S. midtermsThe U.S. Federal Reserve appears set to hold interest rates steady at its meeting next week, analysts say, despite stubbornly high inflation and with markets pricing in at least one rate hike before year-end. - US inflation expectations hit May high ahead of FedThe University of Michigan reported on October 23 that US household inflation expectations rose in October, with year-ahead forecasts reaching 4.7% and long-run forecasts climbing to 3.5%. The data marks the second consecutive monthly…
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Federal Reserve: October hold raises December hike odds - TD SecuritiesTD Securities strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds rate at 4.00% at the October FOMC meeting, despite strong inflation and solid labor data. They see this pause increasing the likelihood of rate hikes in… -
Fed Decision, Microsoft, Alphabet Earnings Highlight Blockbuster WeekGet ahead of the market by subscribing to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Week Ahead, a preview of key events scheduled for the coming week. The newsletter keeps you informed of the biggest stories set to make headlines, including upcoming… -
Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Drops Below $80K as $810 Million Gets Wiped Out Before the Fed MeetingBitcoin fell below $80,000 on Saturday, reaching a low of $79,146. That was its weakest level in more than a month and its first move under $80,000 since October 15. The drop came during thin weekend trading. Bitcoin was down about 2.2%… -
Bitcoin Price Crash Below $80K: Liquidations, ETF Outflows and Fed UncertaintyBitcoin fell below $80,000 on Saturday, October 24, as forced liquidations and fund withdrawals increased selling pressure. The cryptocurrency dropped 1.91% over 24 hours to $79,994.97 during the initial decline. Meanwhile, upcoming… - Bitcoin’s Fed Week Starts With A Fresh Rise In US Inflation ExpectationsTL;DR: US household inflation expectations rose in October while consumer sentiment barely changed. The readings add context ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 27–28 meeting, without establishing a rate decision or a Bitcoin price…
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Fed’s Bowman Calls for Clearer Accountability in Bank Supervision After SVB LessonsThe Ritz Herald Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman said Oct. 14 in Bangkok that bank supervision must modernize around timely action, clear decision-making authority and a tighter focus on material risks, drawing…
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All the fed ›Fed decision in Dec 2026?
73%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps73%▲ 2
- Fed maintains rate23%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps4%▼ 1
2 more
- Cut 25bps1%
- Cut >25bps<1%
Fed decision in Jan 2027?
64%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate64%▲ 1
- Hike 25bps32%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps3%▼ 1
2 more
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps1%
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
61%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps61%▼ 1
- Fed maintains rate27%▼ 2
- Cut 25bps9%
2 more
- Cut >25bps1%
- Hike >25bps1%
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
51%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate51%▼ 3
- Hike 25bps38%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps7%▲ 1
2 more
- Cut >25bps2%
- Hike >25bps1%
Fed decision in Jun 2027?
61%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate61%
- Hike 25bps33%▲ 1
- Cut 25bps4%▲ 2
2 more
- Cut >25bps1%
- Hike >25bps1%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
73%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate73%
- Hike 25bps21%
- Cut 25bps2%
2 more
- Cut >25bps1%
- Hike >25bps1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.