Fed decision in Jan 2027?

Kalshi Economy › The Fed Closes Jan 27, 2027 · $18 today · $78.1K traded · $49K at stake · prices read 10 min ago

The odds

62%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate62%
Hike 25bps33%▲ 1
Cut 25bps2%
Hike >25bps1%
Cut >25bps1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Fed maintains rate	62%		62¢	63¢	$1.59	54.5K
Hike 25bps	33%	▲ 1	33¢	34¢	$2.94	127.8K
Cut 25bps	2%		2¢	3¢	$33.33	31.2K
Hike >25bps	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	19.6K
Cut >25bps	1%			1¢	$100.00	16.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Crypto.com

Fed decision in Jan 2027?Cut 50+ bpKalshi 1%Crypto.com 2%2 pts apart

Fed Decision in Jan 2027

63%0bps (Unchanged)

0bps (Unchanged)63%
Hike <=25bps32%
Cut <=25bps3%
Hike >25bps3%

1 more

Cut >25bps2%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The same question on Polymarket

Fed decision in Jan 2027?HoldKalshi 62%Polymarket 64%2 pts apart

Fed Decision in January?

64%No change

No change64%▲ 2
25 bps increase34%
25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps increase1%

1 more

50+ bps decrease1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All the fed ›

Economy › The Fed

Fed decision in Mar 2027?

51%Hike 25bps

Hike 25bps51%▼ 11
Fed maintains rate33%
Cut >25bps5%

2 more

Cut 25bps4%▼ 1
Hike >25bps3%

Economy › The Fed

Fed decision in Dec 2026?

75%Hike 25bps

Hike 25bps75%▲ 3
Fed maintains rate21%▼ 3
Hike >25bps5%▲ 1

2 more

Cut 25bps1%
Cut >25bps<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed decision in Apr 2027?

69%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate69%▲ 1
Hike 25bps15%▼ 8
Cut 25bps5%

2 more

Hike >25bps4%
Cut >25bps2%

Economy › The Fed

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

85%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate85%▼ 1
Hike 25bps13%▲ 1
Cut >25bps1%

2 more

Cut 25bps1%
Hike >25bps1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed decision in Jun 2027?

58%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate58%
Hike 25bps29%
Cut >25bps7%▲ 2

2 more

Cut 25bps5%
Hike >25bps3%▲ 1

Economy › The Fed

Fed decision in Jul 2027?

79%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate79%
Hike 25bps14%▲ 1
Cut 25bps5%

2 more

Cut >25bps1%
Hike >25bps1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFederal Reserve

Trading closesJan 27, 2027 1:59 PM ET

Traded$78.1K (249,770 contracts)

Today$18

This week$78.1K

At stake$49K

In the news81 headlines today, 1,929 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

5Y Yield^FVX · moves with it4.929+0.61%
S&P 500^GSPC · moves with it7,690.73+0.41%
3M T-Bill^IRX · moves with it4.075+0.12%
^TNX^TNX · moves with it
IEFIEF · moves with it
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury BondSHY · moves with it81.31−0.06%
SPYSPY · moves with it766.48+0.42%
TLTTLT · moves with it79.46−0.74%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.