Fed Decision in Dec 2026
75%Hike <=25bps
- Hike <=25bps75%
- 0bps (Unchanged)20%
- Hike >25bps4%
- Cut >25bps3%
1 more
- Cut <=25bps3%
Install
Fed decision in Dec 2026?
The odds
74%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps74%▲ 1
- Fed maintains rate23%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps4%
- Cut 25bps1%
- Cut >25bps<1%
How the odds have moved
Hike 25bps: 75% on Oct 20, 74% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 74% | ▲ 1 | 74¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | 257.3K |
| Fed maintains rate | 23% | ▲ 1 | 23¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 429.5K |
| Hike >25bps | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 297.1K | |
| Cut 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 228.4K | |
| Cut >25bps | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 137.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Crypto.com
- Fed decision in Dec 2026?HoldKalshi 23%Crypto.com 19%4 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on ForecastEx
- Fed decision in Dec 2026?Hike 50+ bpKalshi 4%ForecastEx 7%3 pts apart
Fed Decision (Dec 9, 2026)
72%Hike 25 bp
- Hike 25 bp72%
- Hold21%
- Hike 50+ bp7%
- Cut 25 bp<1%
1 more
- Cut 50+ bp<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- Fed decision in Dec 2026?HoldKalshi 23%Polymarket 20%3 pts apart
Fed Decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 2
- No change20%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›-
Trump Forms Committee to Probe Federal Reserve’s Lisa CookPresident Donald Trump on Oct. 9 announced a new committee to investigate whether a Federal Reserve governor made false statements. The committee will probe allegations that Lisa Cook, governor of the Federal Reserve, offered false… -
Can the Federal Reserve Keep Rates High Without Breaking Something?Although the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October 27-28 meeting, the bigger problem remains. Inflation is still stubborn, oil is well above $100, and US borrowing costs are… -
President Donald Trump Just Proclaimed, "Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation, They Cause Wealth," but Data From Federal Reserve Economists Show OtherwiseHowever, this doesn't mean that all of the president's policies are necessarily well-received on Wall Street. For example, Trumpflation (inflation specifically driven by Donald Trump's policies) is a genuine threat to the artificial… -
Ethereum Faces Downside Pressure as Arthur Hayes Sells Holdings Ahead of Make-or-Break Federal Reserve MeetingEthereum has slipped back toward the $2,350 to $2,380 range, dragged down in part by high-profile asset dumps from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, while Bitcoin tests vital support at $80,500. One of the primary catalysts driving social… -
Inflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy weekA key update on inflation and its impact on consumer confidence, economic growth and interest rate policy will fill a busy calendar this week along with more big earnings reports. They all arrive just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm… - September Jobs Data Set to Influence Federal Reserve’s Rate Strategy as Futures ClimbU.S. stock futures advanced during Friday’s pre-market session as market participants prepared for employment figures that may influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance on borrowing costs. S&P 500 futures increased 0.4%, while…
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Federal Reserve: October hold raises December hike odds - TD SecuritiesTD Securities strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds rate at 4.00% at the October FOMC meeting, despite strong inflation and solid labor data. They see this pause increasing the likelihood of rate hikes in… -
Pine Bluff NAACP asks Federal Reserve for community meeting on Simmons Bank branch closingThe Pine Bluff Branch NAACP recently filed a written request with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis asking the federal regulator to consult with community leaders and hold a public meeting before Simmons Bank closes its branch at 1704… -
The Federal Reserve At A Time Of UncertaintyEconomic uncertainty has increased on several fronts. That has made it even more difficult than before for the Fed to forecast the path of inflation and employment. Read more here... - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been consistently clear… -
The Federal Reserve's Latest October Inflation Forecast Has Arrived, and It's Terrible News for Wall StreetYear four of Wall Street's bull market didn't disappoint. The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.02%), S&P 500 (^GSPC -1.21%), and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC -2.60%) to… - Brent Crude Tops $100 as Markets Await Federal Reserve September Meeting MinutesUS stock futures showed little directional conviction Wednesday morning as market participants positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting readout. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped marginally into negative…
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Federal Reserve preview: A pause before a December hikeDespite hot inflation prints in September and the Fed having signalled that further action to tame inflation will likely be needed, markets and economists are united in expecting the central bank to leave interest rates on hold at the 28…
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed decision in Oct 2026?
93%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate93%▲ 1
- Hike 25bps5%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps1%
2 more
- Cut 25bps1%
- Hike >25bps1%
Fed decision in Jan 2027?
64%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate64%▲ 1
- Hike 25bps32%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps3%▲ 1
2 more
- Cut 25bps2%
- Cut >25bps1%
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
61%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps61%▼ 1
- Fed maintains rate27%
- Cut 25bps9%
2 more
- Cut >25bps1%
- Hike >25bps1%
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
51%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate51%▼ 3
- Hike 25bps38%▲ 2
- Cut 25bps7%▲ 1
2 more
- Cut >25bps2%
- Hike >25bps1%
Fed decision in Jun 2027?
61%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate61%
- Hike 25bps33%▼ 2
- Cut 25bps4%▲ 2
2 more
- Cut >25bps1%
- Hike >25bps1%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
73%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate73%
- Hike 25bps21%
- Cut 25bps2%
2 more
- Cut >25bps1%
- Hike >25bps1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions