Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting? (October 2026 FOMC)

Kalshi Economy › The Fed Closes Oct 28 · $175 today · $11K traded · $4.9K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

80%Beth Hammack

Beth Hammack80%▲ 5
Lorie Logan48%
Neel Kashkari37%▲ 1
Michelle Bowman11%
Anna Paulson8%
Christopher Waller7%
Michael Barr5%
Kevin Warsh2%
Lisa Cook2%
John Williams2%
Philip Jefferson2%
Jerome Powell1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Beth Hammack	80%	▲ 5	79¢	80¢	$1.25	10.1K
Lorie Logan	48%		43¢	52¢	$1.92	3.7K
Neel Kashkari	37%	▲ 1	34¢	39¢	$2.56	2.6K
Michelle Bowman	11%		7¢	14¢	$7.14	417
Anna Paulson	8%		4¢	12¢	$8.33
Christopher Waller	7%		4¢	10¢	$10.00	516
Michael Barr	5%		2¢	7¢	$14.29	410
Kevin Warsh	2%			4¢	$25.00	410
Lisa Cook	2%			4¢	$25.00	410
John Williams	2%			3¢	$33.33	3.9K
Philip Jefferson	2%			3¢	$33.33	2.3K
Jerome Powell	1%			2¢	$50.00	1.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All the fed ›

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in October?

85%No change

No change85%▼ 2
25 bps increase14%▲ 1
25 bps decrease<1%

2 more

50+ bps increase<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in December?

77%25 bps increase

25 bps increase77%▲ 1
No change20%▼ 2
50+ bps increase3%

2 more

25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in January?

64%No change

No change64%▲ 2
25 bps increase34%
25 bps decrease1%

2 more

50+ bps increase1%
50+ bps decrease1%

Economy › The Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

97%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)1%
2 (50 bps)<1%

10 more

4 (100 bps)<1%
3 (75 bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%
12+ (300+ bps)<1%

Economy › The Fed

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

68%2 (50 bps)

2 (50 bps)68%
1 (25 bps)21%▼ 2
3 (75 bps)10%

2 more

4 (100 bps)1%
5+ (125+ bps)<1%

Economy › The Fed

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

81%chance▲ 2

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFederal Reserve Board of Governors

Trading closesOct 28, 2026 1:59 PM ET

Traded$11K (26,197 contracts)

Today$175

This week$11K

At stake$4.9K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Kevin Warsh formally dissented at the October 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

5Y Yield^FVX · moves with it4.929+0.61%
S&P 500^GSPC · moves with it7,690.73+0.41%
3M T-Bill^IRX · moves with it4.075+0.12%
^TNX^TNX · moves with it
IEFIEF · moves with it
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury BondSHY · moves with it81.31−0.06%
SPYSPY · moves with it766.48+0.42%
TLTTLT · moves with it79.46−0.74%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.