Fed Decision in October?
87%No change
- No change87%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase13%▼ 2
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
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Fed median dot plot in December 2026
The odds
4.06%median
3.4%4.7%
Median 4.06%Middle half 4.01% – 4.11%
How the odds have moved
Median: 4.07% on Oct 20, 4.06% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.5% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | |||
| Above 3.6% | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | |||
| Above 3.7% | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | |||
| Above 3.8% | 97% | 93¢ | $1.04 | |||
| Above 3.9% | 95% | 91¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 240 | |
| Above 4.0% | 82% | ▲ 2 | 78¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 400 |
| Above 4.1% | 27% | ▼ 21 | 24¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 1.6K |
| Above 4.2% | 12% | ▼ 5 | 10¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 386 |
| Above 4.3% | 5% | ▼ 4 | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 401 |
| Above 4.4% | 4% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 41.00 |
| Above 4.5% | 4% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 62.00 |
| Above 4.6% | 4% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›-
Could Donald Trump Save the Federal Reserve?So who is Warsh? As an undergraduate at Stanford, he worked as a research assistant to Milton Friedman, and he has retained his teacher’s skepticism toward Federal Reserve overreach and intervention in financial markets. Friedman famously… -
AI boom complicates Federal Reserve’s inflation fightExplore the BridgeTower Media network. 36 publications across 4 industries. AI boom complicates Federal Reserve’s inflation fight Federal Reserve officials say rapid artificial intelligence investment by companies such as Amazon, Apple and… -
Federal Reserve seen skipping Oct rate hike but hiking in Dec - Reuters pollInvesting.com - The Federal Reserve is set to keep interest rates steady at the central bank's next monetary policy meeting later this month, but raise borrowing costs once again in December, according to a Reuters poll released on… - Concept 31: The Federal Reserve StructureThe Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. It oversees the nation’s money supply (through monetary policy), processes payments, and supervises and regulates banks. The U.S. Congress created the Federal Reserve in 1913 in…
- The Federal Reserve: What Has Already Been Priced In?One of the recurring themes on Tech Trend Investments is the importance of understanding the relationship between monetary policy and financial markets. During the episode, Lizabeth and Joseph discussed how investors begin positioning…
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The Federal Reserve Just Warned More Rate Hikes Are Likely Coming. History Has Good and Bad News for InvestorsAnd the Fed just warned that more rate hikes are likely coming. Against this backdrop, history has good and bad news for investors. First, though, let's start with a summary of the market situation over the past few years. As mentioned… -
Gold edges higher on softer oil; Fed rate outlook in focusGold prices edged higher on Monday as softer oil prices offered support, while investors assessed the chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year and looked for fresh signals on the U.S. central bank's policy… -
K.C. Federal Reserve ag survey is positiveThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has released results of its third quarter ag credit survey of ag bankers. As you might expect, it’s a very positive report. The survey showed that Tenth District farmland values hastened their climb… -
Fed Minutes Show Another Rate Hike Is Likely This Year as Kevin Warsh's FOMC Battles Persistent Inflation. Here's Why That Signal Matters for Stocks and Bonds Heading Into Year-End.According to the latest meeting minutes released Oct. 7 by the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Kevin Warsh and the other central bankers are planning to hike interest rates again in 2026. The FOMC has two more… -
Federal Reserve: US Loan Delinquencies Jump to 19.6%, Median Family Wealth Rises to $215,900Nearly 20% of indebted US families reported late loan payments, up from 12.2% in 2022, even as median household wealth rose to $215,900. Nearly one in five indebted American families reported falling behind on loan payments, according to… -
Laurene Powell Jobs Invested $250 Million in David Ellison’s SkydanceBillionaire and philanthropist Laurene Powell Jobs paid $250 million to acquire a stake in Skydance, the David Ellison-led company formed by the merger of Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery. Powell Jobs, founder and president of… -
CVBA breakfast to feature Federal Reserve economist Ryo TashiroThe Cumberland Valley Business Alliance will bring a Federal Reserve economist to Chambersburg in December to provide an outlook on economic and labor market trends affecting the region. There is no denying the Pittsburgh Steelers are…
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed Decision in January?
57%No change
- No change57%▼ 5
- 25 bps increase36%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Fed Decision in December?
77%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase77%▲ 1
- No change19%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
80%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate80%▲ 5
- Hike 25bps15%▲ 2
- Cut >25bps4%▲ 4
2 more
- Hike >25bps4%▲ 4
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 3
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
68%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)68%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)21%
- 3 (75 bps)10%
2 more
- 4 (100 bps)1%
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.