Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
4.11%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 4.11%Middle half 4.02% – 4.2%
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Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?
The odds
3.88%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 3.88%Middle half 3.82% – 3.95%
How the odds have moved
Median: 3.9% on Oct 20, 3.88% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.75% | 100% | 99¢ | 3.3K | |||
| Above 3.00% | 100% | 99¢ | 3.6K | |||
| Above 3.25% | 100% | 99¢ | 6.4K | |||
| Above 3.50% | 100% | 99¢ | 14.3K | |||
| Above 3.75% | 100% | 99¢ | 35.8K | |||
| Above 4.00% | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 289.0K | |
| Above 4.25% | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 70.9K | ||
| Above 4.50% | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 14.3K | ||
| Above 4.75% | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 11.1K | ||
| Above 5.00% | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 4.1K | ||
| Above 5.25% | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 1.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›- September Jobs Data Set to Influence Federal Reserve’s Rate Strategy as Futures ClimbU.S. stock futures advanced during Friday’s pre-market session as market participants prepared for employment figures that may influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance on borrowing costs. S&P 500 futures increased 0.4%, while…
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Inflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy weekA key update on inflation and its impact on consumer confidence, economic growth and interest rate policy will fill a busy calendar this week along with more big earnings reports. They all arrive just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm… -
Federal Reserve: October hold raises December hike odds - TD SecuritiesTD Securities strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds rate at 4.00% at the October FOMC meeting, despite strong inflation and solid labor data. They see this pause increasing the likelihood of rate hikes in… -
The Federal Reserve At A Time Of UncertaintyEconomic uncertainty has increased on several fronts. That has made it even more difficult than before for the Fed to forecast the path of inflation and employment. Read more here... - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been consistently clear… -
Pine Bluff NAACP asks Federal Reserve for community meeting on Simmons Bank branch closingThe Pine Bluff Branch NAACP recently filed a written request with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis asking the federal regulator to consult with community leaders and hold a public meeting before Simmons Bank closes its branch at 1704… -
Federal Reserve preview: A pause before a December hikeDespite hot inflation prints in September and the Fed having signalled that further action to tame inflation will likely be needed, markets and economists are united in expecting the central bank to leave interest rates on hold at the 28… -
Fed expected to hold rates steady days ahead of U.S. midtermsThe U.S. Federal Reserve appears set to hold interest rates steady at its meeting next week, analysts say, despite stubbornly high inflation and with markets pricing in at least one rate hike before year-end. - Brent Crude Tops $100 as Markets Await Federal Reserve September Meeting MinutesUS stock futures showed little directional conviction Wednesday morning as market participants positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting readout. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped marginally into negative…
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Fed Decision, Microsoft, Alphabet Earnings Highlight Blockbuster WeekGet ahead of the market by subscribing to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Week Ahead, a preview of key events scheduled for the coming week. The newsletter keeps you informed of the biggest stories set to make headlines, including upcoming… -
Trump Criticizes Warsh as Fed Rate Hikes Threaten StocksPresident Donald Trump has intensified criticism of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy after its September rate increase, raising concerns about borrowing costs and the outlook for U.S. stocks. The dispute centers on Fed Chair Kevin… -
Bitcoin Price Crash Below $80K: Liquidations, ETF Outflows and Fed UncertaintyBitcoin fell below $80,000 on Saturday, October 24, as forced liquidations and fund withdrawals increased selling pressure. The cryptocurrency dropped 1.91% over 24 hours to $79,994.97 during the initial decline. Meanwhile, upcoming… -
Gold Falls to Three-Month Low, Oil Prices Fuel Fed Rate ConcernsHome » Economy » Gold Falls to Three-Month Low, Oil Prices Fuel Fed Rate Concerns Casablanca – Gold prices stayed below $4,000 an ounce on Saturday after hitting their lowest level in three months on Friday. Rising oil prices have raised…
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All the fed ›Fed funds rate after Jan 2027 meeting?
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Fed funds rate after Mar 2027 meeting?
4.89%median
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Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
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4.62%median
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Fed funds rate after Sep 2027 meeting?
77%Above 3.25%
-0.25%5%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.