Fed Decision in October?
88%No change
- No change88%▲ 3
- 25 bps increase11%▼ 3
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Number of Fed Rate Cuts (Dec 9, 2026)
The odds
0.53median
-19
Median 0.53Middle half 0.24 – 0.83
How the odds have moved
Median: 0.53 on Oct 20, 0.53 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on ForecastEx.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0 | 95% | $1.05 | 11.0K | |||
| Above 1 | 10% | $9.63 | 3.6K | |||
| Above 2 | 10% | $9.63 | 8.4K | |||
| Above 3 | 10% | $9.63 | 8.0K | |||
| Above 4 | 10% | $9.63 | 8.0K | |||
| Above 5 | 10% | $9.63 | 8.0K | |||
| Above 6 | 10% | $9.63 | 8.0K | |||
| Above 7 | 10% | $9.63 | 8.0K | |||
| Above 8 | 10% | $9.63 | 8.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
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Could Donald Trump Save the Federal Reserve?So who is Warsh? As an undergraduate at Stanford, he worked as a research assistant to Milton Friedman, and he has retained his teacher’s skepticism toward Federal Reserve overreach and intervention in financial markets. Friedman famously… -
Federal Reserve seen holding rates in October, then hiking in DecemberFederal Reserve policymakers are expected to pause on interest rates at their October meeting even as inflation remains elevated and economic growth stays firm. Economists surveyed this week increasingly see a December hike as the more… -
AI boom complicates Federal Reserve’s inflation fightExplore the BridgeTower Media network. 36 publications across 4 industries. AI boom complicates Federal Reserve’s inflation fight Federal Reserve officials say rapid artificial intelligence investment by companies such as Amazon, Apple and… -
Federal Reserve seen skipping Oct rate hike but hiking in Dec - Reuters pollInvesting.com - The Federal Reserve is set to keep interest rates steady at the central bank's next monetary policy meeting later this month, but raise borrowing costs once again in December, according to a Reuters poll released on… -
Tracker: The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet AssetsThis tracker follows the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) total consolidated assets, held on its balance sheet, as the best indicator of the Fed’s direct intervention in the economy. Each week, the Federal Reserve publishes its balance sheet… -
Federal Reserve weighs wider economic costs as AI spending complicates inflation fightAI-driven tech spending challenges the Federal Reserve's inflation control, shifting the burden to households, small business, and credit-reliant sectors. Federal Reserve weighs wider economic costs as AI spending complicates inflation… -
Federal Reserve issues chilling warning to 3.1M US homeowners and every American with a credit card — act before Oct. 28The Federal Reserve's latest message could reach well beyond Wall Street — straight into your credit card statement and, for some homeowners, the monthly bill that keeps a roof over your head. Buried in the minutes (1) of its September… - Concept 31: The Federal Reserve StructureThe Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. It oversees the nation’s money supply (through monetary policy), processes payments, and supervises and regulates banks. The U.S. Congress created the Federal Reserve in 1913 in…
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The Federal Reserve Just Warned More Rate Hikes Are Likely Coming. History Has Good and Bad News for InvestorsAnd the Fed just warned that more rate hikes are likely coming. Against this backdrop, history has good and bad news for investors. First, though, let's start with a summary of the market situation over the past few years. As mentioned… -
View / The AI boom doesn’t answer to the FedAI giants keep borrowing as rates rise, blunting the central bank’s main tool against inflation. Lizâs viewOne rule of investing is âdonât fight the Fed.â Playing the contrarian to the Federal Reserveâs plans to stimulate or… - The Federal Reserve: What Has Already Been Priced In?One of the recurring themes on Tech Trend Investments is the importance of understanding the relationship between monetary policy and financial markets. During the episode, Lizabeth and Joseph discussed how investors begin positioning…
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Housing is flashing warning signs just as the Fed weighs more interest rate hikesThe Federal Reserve's inflation fight is running into a growing complication: The housing market is slumping even as broader price pressures persist. Housing data deteriorated further in September, according to separate reports Tuesday…
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed Decision in January?
60%No change
- No change60%▼ 5
- 25 bps increase37%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Fed Decision in December?
77%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase77%
- No change19%
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
76%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate76%▼ 3
- Hike 25bps16%▲ 4
- Cut >25bps5%▲ 5
2 more
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 3
- Hike >25bps2%▲ 1
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
68%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike68%▲ 1
- Hike–Pause–Pause19%▲ 1
- Hike–Hike–Hike8%▼ 3
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Pause3%▲ 1
- Other2%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.