30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
5.25%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 5.25%Middle half 3.35% – 7.21%
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How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
The odds
49%5.10%
5Y Yield now 4.805 +0.78% 4.95%5.4%
Above today's price —
How the odds have moved
5.10%: 66% on Oct 20, 49% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Why it moved
- Oct 24, 11 PM ET5.10%: 47% → 55%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ 4.70% | >99% | ▲ 29 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1.1K | |
| ✓ 4.75% | >99% | ▲ 35 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $456 | |
| ✓ 4.80% | >99% | ▲ 6 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2.7K | |
| ✓ 4.85% | >99% | ▲ 9 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1.7K | |
| ✓ 4.90% | >99% | ▲ 32 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2.7K | |
| ✓ 4.95% | >99% | ▲ 31 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $3.2K | |
| ✓ 5.00% | >99% | ▲ 26 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $7.3K | |
| 5.10% | 49% | ▼ 7 | 48¢ | 50¢ | $2.00 | $72.1K |
| 5.25% | 22% | ▼ 4 | 21¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | $57.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Treasury
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Health Brief: Making sense of Treasury’s biotech deal proposalPharma sees a potential catch in Washington’s latest effort to curb China’s biotech ambitions Happy Friday, and welcome to Health Brief. Calley Means, a key member of the Make America Healthy Again movement, announced he would be leaving… -
Why investors are moving back into TreasurysU.S. Treasurys are returning to favor as a safe haven play that sidesteps investors' worries over a shaky economy and the future of the data center build-out. -
US Treasurys gained in investors’ flight to safetyMarkets have grown worried that Big Tech firms will not make sufficient money to cover their ballooning investments and are running into supply-chain bottlenecks. US Treasurys gained in investors’ flight to safety US Treasurys gained in… -
Treasury proposes major restrictions to U.S. investment in Chinese biotech sectorBy John Wilkerson and Damian Garde WASHINGTON — The Trump administration late on Thursday proposed a rule that would severely restrict future U.S. investment in the Chinese biotech sector but still allow American drugmakers to buy the… -
US Treasury Secretary Bessent dismisses AI bubble fearsBessent shrugged off the possibility of “systemic” economic risks stemming from the AI boom. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday dismissed the possibility of âsystemicâ economic risks stemming from the AI boom, the… -
10-year Treasury yield drops back to 5% this week as investors seek cover from AI worriesInvestors ran for cover this week as artificial intelligence fears hit stocks, driving the 10-year Treasury below 5%. The benchmark yield stayed below 5% on Friday, after falling beneath that level Thursday for the first time in a month as… -
Treasury proposes curbs on high-tech investments in China, Russia, North Koreaby Ryan Mancini 10/22/26 10:37 PM ET The Treasury Department on Thursday proposed a rule to curb American high-tech investments, including AI, outbound to U.S. adversaries like China, Russia, North Korea and other “countries of concern.”… -
Will the Treasury restrict U.S. investment in the Chinese biotech sector?Meghana Keshavan is a biotech correspondent at STAT and co-writer of The Readout newsletter. She joined STAT in 2016. She has written about the life sciences industry for more than a decade. Before that, she worked for news outlets like… -
Crypto Treasury Management: Bitcoin Lending's Next PhaseOn October 23, 2026, Silicon Valley Bank / First Citizens Innovation published a report that marks a structural shift in crypto treasury management: Bitcoin-backed lending has matured into a collateralized, transparent institutional… -
Treasury chief lauds Türkiye's achievements in fiscal transparencyTürkiye has taken "major steps forward" in fiscal transparency in the last decade, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a recent assessment, with a top Turkish economy official lauding the improvement and tying it to institutional… -
Treasury eyes Sh42bn toll deals for Nairobi, Mombasa bypassesThe Southern Bypass Toll Station of the Nairobi Expressway on January 2, 2024. The National Treasury eyes Sh42.26 billion toll deals for two major bypass roads in Nairobi and Mombasa under concession terms. Disclosures show that the… -
SRD grant a “material risk” to government, declares TreasuryHome » Lifestyle » SASSA » SRD grant a “material risk” to government, declares Treasury Extending the grant until 31 March 2027 doesn’t reveal Treasury’s entire plan. On Wednesday, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced that the…
Related markets
All rates & bonds ›How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
24%Below 4.60%
4.4%5.25%
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
16%Below 4.00%
3.9%4.55%
10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?
4.97%median
4.78%5.1%
Median 4.97%Middle half 4.93% – 5%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
23%5.4%
5.3%6.3%
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
30%5.70%
5.6%6.1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions