Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Biggest moves today

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How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?Below 5.00% 69% ▲ 87
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?Below 5.30% 88% ▲ 82
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?Below 4.80% 75% ▲ 78
30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?5.75% or above 48% ▲ 73
How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?Below 4.67% 52% ▲ 69

Decided soon

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10-Year Treasury Yield (Oct 23, 2026)14% Closes Mon 4:15 PM ET

Prices these markets are about

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Price it is about	Last	Today	Markets
TLTTLT	81.34	−0.49%	19
SPYSPY	759.97	−0.52%	12
S&P 500^GSPC	7,623.68	−0.52%	12
10Y Yield^TNX	4.988	+0.71%	11
IEFIEF	91.05	−0.16%	11
30Y Yield^TYX	5.315	+0.53%	8
5Y Yield^FVX	4.805	+0.78%	5
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury BondIEI	114.67	−0.10%	5
Yum! Brands, Inc.YUM	149.70	−3.08%	6
USD/JPYUSDJPY=X	156.8140	+0.02%	2

Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Rates & bonds news

More news ›

Are Gulf sovereign funds facing greater risk due to heavy AI exposure?CNBC · 3 days ago
AI debt issuance rivals European sovereign borrowing, Dagen McDowell warnsFox Business · 4 days ago
View / The AI boom doesn’t answer to the Fedsemafor.com · 4 days ago
Muni Bond Yields Hit Their Highest Level in More Than 15 YearsUSFunds · 2 days ago
French Bond Yields Touch 5% as Risk Premium Over Germany WidensBriefs Finance · 2 days ago
Meituan Weighs Second Offshore Yuan Bond SaleBriefs Finance · 2 days ago
Kazakhstan sovereign wealth fund issues 3b yuan dim sum bond in Hong KongThe Standard 英文虎報 · 3 days ago
Finance Minister Godongwana Delivers MTBPS: Fruits Of Fiscal Discipline Becoming ApparentThe Bulrushes · 3 days ago

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.