Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prices these markets are about

All ›

Price it is about	Last	Today	Markets
SPYSPY	759.97	−0.52%	12
S&P 500^GSPC	7,623.68	−0.52%	12
5Y Yield^FVX	4.805	+0.78%	5
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury BondIEI	114.67	−0.10%	5
TLTTLT	81.34	−0.49%	21
10Y Yield^TNX	4.988	+0.71%	13
IEFIEF	91.05	−0.16%	13
30Y Yield^TYX	5.315	+0.53%	8
Yum! Brands, Inc.YUM	149.70	−3.08%	6
Nikkei 225^N225	62,693.16	−0.34%	2

Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Jobs news

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Seasonal Layoffs and the WARN Act: When Holiday-Season Cuts Require 60 Days' NoticeDEV Community · 9 h ago
Comcast lost 144,000 broadband customers last quarter, is planning layoffs so AI agents can take over customer serviceTechSpot · 10 h ago
'Raise Targets, Fire Them for Cause': Ex-Amex Director Alleges US Engineers Were Pushed Out for India HiresInternational Business Times · 11 h ago
Major high street bank to cut another 275 jobs after axing hundreds of staff earlier this yearThe Sun · 11 h ago
Laid-Off Employee Says Former Team Is Crumbling After Job Cuts: 'Sipping Margaritas As It All Falls Apart'News18 · 11 h ago
Labor Department 'bulk dropped' 22K unemployment claims' protestsTimes Union · 11 h ago
Labour is killing aspiration and placing a block on recruitment, say small business owners on Healey's home patch days before the BudgetDaily Mail · 12 h ago
Xbox Rejects Netflix’s $500 Million Offer for Platform DealDEV Community · 14 h ago

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions