Average Wall Street bonus in 2026
$283,750median
$175,000$375,000
Median $283,750Middle half $262,500 – $305,729
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Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
The odds
455,841median
445,000465,000
Median 455,841Middle half 454,450 – 456,918
How the odds have moved
Median: 456,076 on Oct 20, 455,841 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 447,500 jobs | 97% | 96¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 40.1K | |
| Above 450,000 jobs | 96% | 95¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 7.4K | |
| Above 452,500 jobs | 95% | 94¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 10.9K | |
| Above 455,000 jobs | 70% | 69¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | 16.9K | |
| Above 457,500 jobs | 12% | 11¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 26.6K | |
| Above 460,000 jobs | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 33.5K | |
| Above 462,500 jobs | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 49.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Wisconsin
Search ›-
Wisconsin shuts down No. 16 USC in 24-7 upsetWisconsin (5-2, 3-1 Big Ten) had its second victory of the season over a ranked opponent. The Badgers won 24-20 at then-No. 13 Penn State on Sept. 26. Jackson spent the last two seasons at USC. He rushed 5 yards for a score to put… -
See Wisconsin football highlights vs USC at Camp RandallWisconsin Badgers cornerback Javan Robinson (2) deflects a pass intended for USC Trojans wide receiver Kayden Dixon-Wyatt (17) during their game Oct. 24, 2026, at Camp Randall Sta ... - See Wisconsin football highlights vs USC at Camp… -
Luke Fickell comments on Wisconsin football's upset win vs USCWisconsin football coach Luke Fickell said that 'this team believes' after the Badgers' 24-7 win over No. 15 USC. - Luke Fickell comments on Wisconsin football's upset win vs USC Wisconsin football coach Luke Fickell said that 'this team… -
How data centers became a bipartisan political issue in WisconsinData centers are a big issue across the country. As midterms approach, many look to the swing state of Wisconsin for lessons for how that issue could play out nationally. How data centers became a bipartisan political issue in Wisconsin… -
Former Trojans back Bryan Jackson, Wisconsin upset No. 16 USC 24-7October 24, 2026 / 8:38 PM PDT / AP USC transfer Bryan Jackson scored a first-half touchdown against his former team to help Wisconsin surprise the No. 16 Trojans 24-7 on Saturday night. Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1 Big Ten) had its second victory… -
3 predictions for Wisconsin vs. USC: Is an upset in the cards?Coming off a 17-7 loss to the No. 12 UCLA Bruins, the Wisconsin Badgers are taking on the No. 16 USC Trojans at home, with kickoff set for 6:30 p.m. at Camp Randall Stadium on NBC. It was a disappointing outing for the Badgers last… -
Wisconsin football vs USC score, live updates, highlights, how to watchMADISON – As Game 2 of the World Series captures the sports spotlight in the state, Wisconsin football has its own challenge roughly 75 miles to the west of American Family Field. The unranked Badgers will face No. 15 USC on Oct. 24 at… -
USC suffers humiliating Wisconsin loss as Lincoln Riley’s seat heats upThe Trojans have been a disaster this season. USC needed to beat unranked Wisconsin Saturday in order to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. That did not happen as the Badgers stunned USC, 24-7. The special teams unit played a… -
College GameDay Makes Picks For USC Trojans vs. Wisconsin Badgers ShowdownWith Week 8 of the college football season underway, 10 of the 18 Big Ten teams are set to start a quarterback that they didn’t start at the beginning of the season. Injuries to Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, Oregon’s Dante Moore, and UCLA’s… -
USC’s Jayden Maiava throws 2 interceptions in first quarter vs. WisconsinJayden Maiava had an uncharacteristic first quarter against Wisconsin. The USC quarterback threw two interceptions on the first two of three Trojans possessions to start the game. The defense limited the damage as the first pick resulted… -
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USC Trojans vs. Wisconsin Badgers Final Preview and PredictionThe No. 16 USC Trojans practiced with a blaring loud speaker once again. Two weeks after preparing for the "White Out" at Penn State, USC turned the volume up on campus over the practice speakers again. But this time to prepare for another…
Related markets
All jobs ›US retail jobs added this holiday season (September–December 2026)
563,415median
250,000650,000
Median 563,415
Unemployment in October (Oct 2026)
4.15%median
3.6%5.1%
Median 4.15%Middle half 4.08% – 4.23%
October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP
15%U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k15%
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k11%▲ 8
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 100k or above6%
8 more
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: Below 50k5%▲ 1
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 50-99k5%▲ 1
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above5%▲ 1
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k1%
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 50k1%
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 50-99k1%
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k1%▼ 21
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 100k or above1%▼ 4
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
10%5.0%
4.5%13%
UK retail sales in October (October 2026)
50%Above 2.0%
-2%3%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions