US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▼ 1
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Growth & recession odds
Every Growth & recession market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.
Trending growth & recession markets
Recession in 2027?
21%chance▼ 1
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.19%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.19%Middle half 2.64% – 3.61%
US real GDP growth in 2026?
2.28%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.28%Middle half 2.12% – 2.44%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.06%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.06%Middle half 0.9% – 3.18%
US real GDP growth in 2033?
2.18%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.18%Middle half 0.88% – 3.64%
US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
2.18%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.18%Middle half 1.09% – 3.05%
US real GDP growth in 2035?
2.17%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.17%Middle half 0.81% – 3.47%
US real GDP growth in 2032?
2.9%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.9%Middle half 1.81% – 4.31%
US real GDP growth in 2036?
1.87%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 1.87%Middle half 1.63% – 2.36%
US real GDP growth in 2030?
2.19%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.19%Middle half 0.9% – 3.13%
US real GDP growth in Q2 2027?
2.02%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.02%Middle half 0.9% – 3.15%
US real GDP growth in 2028?
2.29%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.29%Middle half 0.93% – 3.48%
US real GDP growth in 2031?
2.37%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.37%Middle half 0.89% – 3.84%
US real GDP growth in 2027?
2.26%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.26%Middle half 1.17% – 3.27%
US real GDP growth in 2029?
2.34%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.34%Middle half 1.41% – 3.38%
US real GDP growth in 2034?
2.12%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.12%Middle half 0.95% – 3.2%
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.51%median
0%10%
Median 4.51%Middle half 4.25% – 4.77%
Nebraska corn yield in 2026
187.0median
165195
Median 187.0
Wisconsin total milk production in 2026
33.4median
32.534
Median 33.4Middle half 33.3 – 33.5
Arkansas broiler production in 2026
7.94median
7.408.60
Median 7.94Middle half 7.84 – 8.06
New Hampshire maple syrup production in 2027
148,269median
120,000180,000
Median 148,269Middle half 137,941 – 158,913
South Dakota corn yield in 2026
151.6median
120185
Median 151.6Middle half 146.7 – 156.8
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
1.47%median
-1%6%
Median 1.47%Middle half 1.19% – 1.75%
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.