US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
2.18%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.18%Middle half 1.09% – 3.05%
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US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
The odds
2.06%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.06%Middle half 0.9% – 3.18%
How the odds have moved
Median: 2.09% on Oct 20, 2.06% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 90% | 85¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 326 | |
| Above 0.5% | 83% | 78¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 520 | |
| Above 1.0% | 73% | 68¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 592 | |
| Above 1.5% | 65% | 61¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | 271 | |
| Above 2.0% | 52% | 49¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 894 | |
| Above 2.5% | 39% | 35¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 387 | |
| Above 3.0% | 29% | 25¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 288 | |
| Above 3.5% | 18% | 14¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 55.1K | |
| Above 4.0% | 10% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 36.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: GDP, economic growth
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‘False prosperity’ - Tomlinson questions benefits of Jamaica’s economic growthSenator Cleveland Tomlinson says while the Government boasts about its successful management of the economy, the lived experience of ordinary Jamaicans are not in sync with that claim. “We are not only concerned about an economy on paper… -
Ammar Bin Humaid Reviews Etihad Credit Bureau’s Plans To Support Economic GrowthMohammad Ali (@ChaudhryMAli88) Published October 26, 2026 | 06:15 PM AJMAN, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News / WAM - 26th Oct, 2026) H.H. Sheikh Ammar bin Humaid Al Nuaimi, Crown Prince of Ajman and Chairman of Ajman Executive Council… -
Cambodia resets economic growth with small industries, smart agriculturePHNOM PENH: Cambodia is prioritising small-scale manufacturing industries and high-impact agriculture to drive its next phase of growth, as an economic slowdown and mounting headwinds pose challenges. Weak tourism, rising fuel costs and… -
Hungary can learn from Korea's state-led economic growth model, expert saysParticipants to the seminar, titled "Hungary's Economic Strategy: Lessons from Korea's Development Experience," pose at Sookmyung Women's University in Seoul, Oct. 22. Courtesy of Sookmyung Women's University Korea's state-led economic… -
Long stretch of London’s Oxford Street now closed to buses, cars and taxis in bid to boost economic growthPart of London’s Oxford St has gone permanently traffic-free in an effort to revitalise the area and create a new public space to boost economic growth. An almost 1km section of Britain’s busiest shopping thoroughfare was now closed to… -
Senator Tomlinson offers alternatives for sustained economic growthDeputy Opposition Spokesman on Productivity, Efficiency and Competitiveness, Senator Cleveland Tomlinson has outlined an alternative economic development strategy that he argues Jamaica should pursue to ensure real and sustained growth… - Turning Clean Energy Investment into Economic Growth in North CarolinaRTI Leverages advanced analytics, data science, AI and digital systems to deliver solutions with impact. To evaluate the combined impacts of renewable energy and energy efficiency investments in North Carolina between 2007 to 2024. RTI…
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How China's BeiDou Navigation Satellite System Is Powering Global Economic GrowthChina's BeiDou Navigation Satellite System has expanded its global footprint, delivering advanced positioning and timing services to over 140 countries while driving economic growth and technological innovation. Par Shen Zhilin, People's… -
Anthony Furey: Balancing Economic Growth Programs and the Responsible Use of Taxpayer FundsIt was another initiative from the Carney government that shows the feds are serious about spurring investment and economic growth. What it also shows is that the prime minister very much believes the government—or at least his… -
Double-Engine Boost: PM Modi’s Odisha Visit Focuses on Tech and Economic GrowthHome » Double-Engine Boost: PM Modi’s Odisha Visit Focuses on Tech and Economic Growth Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Odisha tomorrow for the ninth time since the formation of the double-engine government in the state… -
Leveraging Africa’s Raw Materials For Industrialisation, Economic GrowthAfrica is no doubt a land of immense human and natural resources. It should, or could, have been a global power in industrialisation by adding value to its vast raw materials through processing them into finished goods. However, the… -
Finance minister seeks support for SMEs to drive Nigeria’s economic growth — Daily NigerianTaiwo Oyedele, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, has reaffirmed the Federal Government’s commitment to supporting SMEs to drive economic growth, create jobs and promote entrepreneurship. Oyedele, gave the…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions