Kentucky aging Bourbon-barrel inventory as of January 1, 2026
16.9median
1518.5
Median 16.9Middle half 16.5 – 17.3
Install
Government spending increase in 2026
The odds
$454.24Bmedian
$-48B$1.25T
Median $454.24BMiddle half $409.12B – $499.37B
How the odds have moved
Median: $451.67B on Oct 20, $454.24B now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least $1 billion | 98% | 96¢ | 100¢ | 62.00 | ||
| At least $50 billion | 98% | 95¢ | 100¢ | 36.00 | ||
| At least $100 billion | 98% | 96¢ | 100¢ | 28.00 | ||
| At least $200 billion | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 817 | |
| At least $300 billion | 95% | 91¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 1.5K | |
| At least $400 billion | 80% | 75¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 3.6K | |
| At least $500 billion | 25% | 20¢ | 29¢ | $3.46 | 3.5K | |
| At least $750 billion | 10% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 1.4K |
| At least $1 trillion | 5% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 582 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Government
Search ›-
UK government to make Jackdaw gas field announcementThe Jackdaw gas platform and drilling rig stand east of Aberdeen in the North Sea The UK government is expected to announce a long-awaited decision on whether to approve the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea. It is widely believed in… -
The "trillion pound" oil fund the government believes Britain could have builtThe Jackdaw gas platform and drilling rig in the North Sea. After a half-century wait, the United Kingdom now has an oil fund. Chancellor John Healey announced the creation of an Energy Wealth Fund at the Jackdaw gas approval announcement… -
North Sea: UK government agrees to drilling at Jackdaw gas fieldDrilling will begin at the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea, after the government approved gas extraction at the site. It says the gas taken from Jackdaw will be supplied to British homes and businesses by the end of October. The… -
Welsh government to hold Wales-specific Covid inquiryPlaid pledged to review the Labour government's handling of the Covid pandemic in its manifesto The Welsh government is to push on with plans for an independent Wales Covid-19 review. Plaid Cymru promised in its Senedd election manifesto… -
Governments Take Websites Offline After PHP Security WarningsBloomberg.com Governments in Europe are taking websites offline in response to warnings about critical security vulnerabilities in a programming language that underpins the internet. Finland’s government said it was taking offline all… -
How much money does the UK government borrow, and why does it matter?The UK government generally spends more than it raises in tax. To fill this gap it borrows money, but that has to be paid back - with interest. The government gets most of its income from taxes. For example, workers pay income tax and… -
Petition for couple in Iran jail sent to governmentThe son of a British couple detained in Iran has given the government a petition with more than 100,000 signatures asking it to do "everything in its power" to secure their freedom. Lindsay and Craig Foreman, from East Sussex, were… -
Rubio Denies U.S. Government Influenced Starlink Restrictions in UkraineNewsweek - Global Iran WarRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaLive BlogBetter PlanetAll World News Republicans Oppose Russia Waiver, Alberta Rejects Independence, Election Fraud Crackdown Expands: The Bulletin, Oct. 20 From Louisiana to… -
Washington bans DeepSeek from government agenciesSemafor Washington bans DeepSeek from government agencies The US banned Chinese AI firm DeepSeek from most government systems and asked agencies to remove all technology built with it, as competition for AI supremacy between the… -
Civil servant admits he 'made mistakes' juggling five government jobsCivil servant Kashim Chowdhury is accused of fraudulently earning more than £284,000 by working multiple full-time public sector jobs The civil servant accused of fraudulently earning more than £284,000 by juggling multiple public-sector… -
Tory MP questions government advisor's position after wife's Palestine Action postConservative MP Alicia Kearns has raised concerns over whether Jonathan Powell, the national security adviser, can remain in his post following his wife's references to Palestine Action on social media. The shadow home affairs minister has… -
Abu Dhabi in talks to sell government services app to US citiesSemafor Abu Dhabi in talks to sell government services app to US cities Abu Dhabi is in advanced talks to sell the technology behind TAMM, its digital government services app, to US city governments. The platform’s services span business…
Related markets
All growth & recession ›Arkansas broiler production in 2026
7.94median
7.408.60
Median 7.94Middle half 7.84 – 8.06
US recession by end of 2026?
9%chance▲ 1
US ISM Services PMI for October (October 2026)
55.9median
53.256.6
Median 55.9
US Treasury cash balance on October 23, 2026
$967.25median
$825$1,125
Median $967.25Middle half $957.56 – $981.58
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.2%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.2%Middle half 2.66% – 3.61%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.