S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
$767.50median
$745$805
Median $767.50Middle half $766.25 – $768.75
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SPY SPY prediction markets
Every prediction market about SPY: its own price outlook, questions about it, and the ones that move it.
Where traders see SPY
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
$774.67high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $774.67 and as low as $760.15.
- Reaches $770>99%
- Reaches $77547%
- Reaches $78021%
- Falls to $76582%
- Falls to $76049%
- Falls to $75532%
Already reached: ↑ $765
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
$779.08high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $779.08 and as low as $753.79.
- Reaches $770>99%
- Reaches $78045%
- Reaches $79020%
- Falls to $76070%
- Falls to $75038%
- Falls to $74017%
Already reached: ↑ $780, ↑ $770, ↓ $760, ↑ $770, ↑ $770, ↓ $770
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 20?
$767.26median
$735$795
Median $767.26Middle half $763.65 – $770.58
On what it tracks
Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)
92%chance▲ 2
S&P close price end of 2026?
7,834median
3,8009,200
Median 7,834Middle half 7,440 – 8,060
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
69%S&P 500
- S&P 50069%▼ 1
- Bitcoin18%
- Gold6%▼ 2
S&P 500 Futures Price (Oct 19, 2026)
30%Above 7,225
7,2008,075
How high will the S&P get this year? (2026)
8,013high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,013.
- Reaches 8,00052%
- Reaches 8,20024%
- Reaches 8,40013%
Already reached: 7,800 or above
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
8,079high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,079.
- Reaches 8,00057%
- Reaches 8,20039%
- Reaches 8,6006%
- Falls to 7,40050%
- Falls to 7,20029%
- Falls to 7,00023%
Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400
How low will the S&P get this year? (2026)
9%6,300 or below
- Falls to 6,3009%
- Falls to 6,2008%
- Falls to 6,1006%
S&P 2027 year end price range
7,893median
4,40010,600
Median 7,893Middle half 6,964 – 8,748
S&P 500 Futures Price (Dec 31, 2026)
7,960median
2,6009,050
Median 7,960Middle half 7,627 – 8,352
S&P price range on Oct 23, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
7,732median
7,3508,100
Median 7,732Middle half 7,633 – 7,807
What moves it
Fed Decision in October?
85%No change
- No change85%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase14%▲ 2
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in December?
77%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase77%▲ 1
- No change20%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in January?
64%No change
- No change64%▲ 2
- 25 bps increase34%
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
9 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
68%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)68%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)21%▼ 2
- 3 (75 bps)10%
- 4 (100 bps)1%
1 more
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
81%chance▲ 2
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.34%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.34%Middle half 2.74% – 3.91%
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
4.12%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 4.12%Middle half 4.03% – 4.21%
US recession by end of 2026?
7%chance
Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?
3.9%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 3.9%Middle half 3.82% – 3.97%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Next Fed rate hike?
97%Before 2029
- Before 202997%
- Before July 202895%▼ 1
- Before 202894%
- Before July 202792%▲ 1
1 more
- Before 202782%▲ 1
Fed funds rate at end of 2027
4.49%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 4.49%Middle half 4.09% – 5.14%
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
82%chance▲ 13
Fed rate cut by...?
50%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting50%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting33%▲ 3
- April 2027 Meeting31%▼ 1
- March 2027 Meeting14%
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%
- December 2026 Meeting2%
- October 2026 Meeting<1%
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?
0.02median
-0.504.50
Median 0.02Middle half -0.24 – 0.28
SOFR for October 19, 2026
3.86%median
3.85%3.92%
Median 3.86%Middle half 3.85% – 3.9%
October 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents
77%Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
- Rate: No change, Dissents: >077%▲ 5
- Rate: No change, Dissents: 013%▼ 1
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >08%▲ 6
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 02%▼ 2
2 more
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0<1%
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0<1%
Number of rate hikes in 2026?
2median
14
Median 2Middle half 2 – 2
Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting? (October 2026 FOMC)
80%Beth Hammack
- Beth Hammack80%▲ 5
- Lorie Logan48%
- Neel Kashkari37%▲ 1
- Michelle Bowman11%
8 more
- Anna Paulson8%
- Christopher Waller7%
- Michael Barr5%
- Kevin Warsh2%
- Lisa Cook2%
- John Williams2%
- Philip Jefferson2%
- Jerome Powell1%
How many dissenting votes at the October Fed meeting? (October 2026)
1.66median
-0.505.50
Median 1.66Middle half 0.49 – 2.61
US real GDP growth in 2026?
2.24%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.24%Middle half 1.88% – 2.44%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
79%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate79%
- Hike 25bps14%▲ 1
- Cut 25bps5%
- Cut >25bps1%
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%
Recession in 2027?
21%chance▲ 1
Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? (2026)
2%chance
Fed decision in Oct 2027?
73%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate73%▼ 9
- Hike >25bps9%▲ 8
- Hike 25bps8%
- Cut 25bps7%
1 more
- Cut >25bps3%
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.