What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

Polymarket Finance › Indexes Closes Dec 31 · $4.2K today · $435K traded · $154K at stake · prices read just now

The odds

48%↑ $8,000

S&P 500 now 7,623.68 −0.52%

Traders see as low as 7,307.

Reaches 8,00048%
Reaches 8,20021%
Reaches 8,6006%
Reaches 9,0003%
Reaches 9,3002%
Reaches 10,0001%

Falls to 7,40066%
Falls to 7,20032%
Falls to 7,00032%
Falls to 6,20010%
Falls to 6,00010%
Falls to 5,8004%
Falls to 5,2003%
Falls to 4,5003%

Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400

How the odds have moved

Falls to 7,000: 23% on Oct 20, 32% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
✓ ↑ $7,400	>99%	▲ 9	100¢	100¢		$8.9K
✓ ↑ $7,600	>99%	▲ 7	100¢	100¢		$33.2K
✓ ↑ $7,800	>99%	▲ 18	100¢	100¢		$9.4K
↑ $8,000	48%	▲ 4	36¢	59¢	$1.69	$918
↑ $8,200	21%	▼ 2	19¢	23¢	$4.35	$27.2K
↑ $8,600	6%		5¢	6¢	$16.67	$41.5K
↑ $9,000	3%		1¢	5¢	$18.87	$155
↑ $9,300	2%		2¢	2¢	$50.00	$15.3K
↑ $10,000	1%		1¢	2¢	$62.50	$467
↓ $4,500	3%		2¢	3¢	$32.26	$69.5K
↓ $5,200	3%		3¢	4¢	$27.03	$81.6K
↓ $5,800	4%		4¢	4¢	$25.00	$51.2K
↓ $6,000	10%	▼ 2	9¢	12¢	$8.33	$6.5K
↓ $6,200	10%		10¢	11¢	$9.35	$74.7K
✓ ↓ $6,400	>99%	▲ 7	100¢	100¢		$8.6K
✓ ↓ $6,600	>99%	▲ 8	100¢	100¢
↓ $7,000	32%		26¢	38¢	$2.63	$3.2K
↓ $7,200	32%		23¢	39¢	$2.56	$2K
↓ $7,400	66%		46¢	86¢	$1.16	$846

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: S&P 500, stocks

Search ›

The S&P 500 is forming a bearish chart pattern. Can it snap out of it?CNBC · 2 days agoThe S & P 500 has struggled to break decisively above 7,800 since first reaching that area in late July. Along the way, ...
Magnificent 7 Stocks Statistics 2026: Market Cap, S&P 500 Weight and ReturnsCoinCentral · 11 h agoThe Magnificent 7 are seven large U.S. companies that now make up more than one-third of the S&P 500. Their combined market value is close to $25 trillion. This article uses data from Fidelity, MarketWatch, The Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha…
Michael Burry Says S&P 500 Looks ‘Uncannily Close’ To 2000 — And ‘Busted’ Stocks Could Be The WinnersStocktwits · 17 h ago“The Big Short” investor Michael Burry drew comparisons between the current stock market and the dot-com era, calling the current market “uncannily close” to 2000, while adding that the S&P 500’s internal breadth looks unusually weak even…
How much do stocks move after earnings? I measured 12,353 S&P 500 reportsDEV Community · 28 h agoI measured the stock move on the first trading session after every quarterly earnings release by current S&P 500 companies since April 2020: 12,353 reports from 493 companies. The average move was 4.6% and the median 3.3%, about three…
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF $VOO Shares Bought by Howland Capital Management LLCDefense World · 11 h agoHowland Capital Management LLC lifted its stake in shares of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO – Free Report) by 33.4% during the third quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange…
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF $IVV Stock: Crescent Grove Advisors LLC Lowers HoldingsDefense World · 10 h agoCrescent Grove Advisors LLC trimmed its position in iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV – Free Report) by 3.8% in the third quarter, according to its most recent filing with the SEC. The fund owned 95,340 shares of the ETF’s stock after…
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF $IVV Shares Sold by JSF Financial LLCDefense World · 10 h agoJSF Financial LLC reduced its holdings in iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV – Free Report) by 2.1% in the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The…
Two-Thirds of S&P 500 Stocks Rose on Thursday, but the Index Still Fell — Exposing the Risk Hiding in Your Portfolio24/7 Wall St. · 28 h agoOn Thursday, October 22, 2026, 337 S&P 500 stocks finished higher. Only 159 declined and 1 was unchanged across 497 tracked constituents. The index still closed lower. Most stocks rose and the benchmark fell, and that mismatch is a risk…
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF $VOO Stock Position Increased by SBI Securities Co. Ltd.Markets Daily · 10 h agoPosted by Mitch Edgeman on Oct 25th, 2026 Shares of VOO stock opened at $698.58 on Friday. The stock has a 50-day simple moving average of $705.87 and a 200 day simple moving average of $687.57. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF has a fifty-two week…
Foster Victor Wealth Advisors LLC Purchases 1,246 Shares of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF $VOODefense World · 11 h agoFoster Victor Wealth Advisors LLC grew its holdings in Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO – Free Report) by 24.1% during the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund owned…
BIP Wealth LLC Acquires 2,429 Shares of Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF $RSPDefense World · 11 h agoBIP Wealth LLC grew its stake in shares of Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSEARCA:RSP – Free Report) by 42.7% during the third quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund…
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF $IVV Stock Holdings Boosted by Cypress Wealth Services LLCDefense World · 10 h agoCypress Wealth Services LLC lifted its holdings in shares of iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV – Free Report) by 3.1% in the third quarter, according to its most recent filing with the SEC. The firm owned 61,841 shares of the ETF’s…

Related markets

All indexes ›

Finance › Indexes

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?

$772.50high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $772.50 and as low as $757.50.

Reaches $770>99%
Reaches $775<1%

Falls to $765>99%
Falls to $760>99%

Already reached: ↑ $765

Finance › Indexes

Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)

90%chance▼ 1

Finance › Indexes

10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?

5.22%median

1.74%8.24%

Median 5.22%Middle half 4.02% – 6.42%

Finance › Indexes

IBOVESPA closing level on Oct 26, 2026

214,636median

189,000221,000

Median 214,636Middle half 210,225 – 218,500

Finance › Indexes

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

$775.95high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $775.95 and as low as $751.31.

Reaches $770>99%
Reaches $78016%

Falls to $760>99%
Falls to $75043%

Already reached: ↑ $780, ↑ $770, ↓ $760, ↑ $770, ↑ $770, ↓ $770

Finance › Indexes

Nikkei 225: Close Price End of 2026

66,098median

50,00090,000

Median 66,098Middle half 57,744 – 72,807

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onfinance.yahoo.com

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 4:00 PM ET

Traded$435K

Today$4.2K

This week$9.4K

At stake$154K

In the news242 headlines today, 3,541 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December 2026?

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

S&P 500^GSPC · settles on its price7,623.68−0.52%
S&P FuturesES=F · tracks it7,659.75−0.58%
IVVIVV · tracks it763.25−0.54%
SPYSPY · tracks it759.97−0.52%
VOOVOO · tracks it698.58−0.53%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions