Indexes odds

Every Indexes market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.

837 open markets · $2M traded today

Trending indexes markets

Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026

70%S&P 500

S&P 50070%▲ 1
Bitcoin18%▼ 1
Gold5%▼ 2

^GSPC+0.41%VOO+0.36%SPY+0.41%

Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)

92%chance▲ 1

^GSPC+0.41%VOO+0.36%SPY+0.41%

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

8,064high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,064 and as low as 7,395.

Reaches 8,00057%
Reaches 8,20034%
Reaches 8,6006%

Falls to 7,40051%
Falls to 7,20028%
Falls to 7,00023%

Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400

^GSPC+0.41%VOO+0.36%SPY+0.41%

S&P 500 Futures Price (Dec 31, 2026)

7,960median

2,6009,050

Median 7,960Middle half 7,627 – 8,352

^GSPC+0.41%VOO+0.36%SPY+0.41%

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

$782.81high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $782.81 and as low as $758.71.

Reaches $770>99%
Reaches $78060%
Reaches $79025%

Falls to $76053%
Falls to $75029%
Falls to $74017%

Already reached: ↑ $780, ↑ $770, ↓ $760, ↑ $770, ↑ $770, ↓ $770

SPY+0.41%IVV+0.37%^GSPC+0.41%

Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?

30,209median

18,50033,500

Median 30,209Middle half 28,174 – 31,702

^NDX+0.18%QQQ+0.21%NQ=F+0.46%

How high will the S&P get this year? (2026)

47%8,000 or above

Reaches 8,00047%
Reaches 8,20025%
Reaches 8,40013%

Already reached: 7,800 or above

^GSPC+0.41%VOO+0.36%SPY+0.41%

S&P close price end of 2026?

7,821median

3,8009,200

Median 7,821Middle half 7,426 – 8,063

^GSPC+0.41%VOO+0.36%SPY+0.41%

Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026?

87%chance

How high will the Nasdaq-100 price get in 2026?

31,417high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 31,417.

Reaches 30,800100%
Reaches 31,000100%
Reaches 31,200100%

^NDX+0.18%QQQ+0.21%NQ=F+0.46%

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?

$767.50median

$745$805

Median $767.50Middle half $766.25 – $768.75

SPY+0.41%^GSPC+0.41%VOO+0.36%

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?

$777.61high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $777.61 and as low as $761.27.

Reaches $770>99%
Reaches $77568%
Reaches $78034%

Falls to $765>99%
Falls to $76033%
Falls to $75518%

Already reached: ↑ $765

SPY+0.41%VOO+0.36%^GSPC+0.41%

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 20?

$771.33median

$735$795

Median $771.33Middle half $768.48 – $773.48

SPY+0.41%VOO+0.36%IVV+0.37%

NASDAQ-100 price at year-end? (Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST)

29,769median

25,00043,000

Median 29,769Middle half 28,271 – 32,294

How low will the S&P get this year? (2026)

9%6,300 or below

Falls to 6,3009%
Falls to 6,2008%
Falls to 6,1006%

^GSPC+0.41%ES=F+0.58%IVV+0.37%

10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?

5.44%median

1.74%8.24%

Median 5.44%Middle half 4.33% – 7.46%

Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. Gold? (2026)

95%S&P 500 Total Return Index

S&P 500 Total Return Index95%
Gold3%▼ 3

Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. BTC? (2026)

90%S&P 500 Total Return Index

S&P 500 Total Return Index90%▼ 2
BTC8%▲ 2

Nikkei 225: Close Price End of 2026

72,636median

50,00090,000

Median 72,636Middle half 63,315 – 77,912

^N225-1.30%EWJ+0.55%

S&P price at year-end? (Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST)

7,763median

6,8008,600

Median 7,763Middle half 7,414 – 8,086

S&P 500 Daily Up/Down (Oct 20, 2026)

46%chance

^GSPC+0.41%SPY+0.41%VOO+0.36%

When will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000? (S&P 500 Index - 8000)

Dec 13, 2026even chance by

Before Nov 1, 202624%▲ 19
Before Dec 1, 202633%
Before Jan 1, 202779%
Before Feb 1, 202779%▼ 18

1 more

Before Mar 1, 202779%

How low will the OpenAI GPT 5.5 input token price get in 2026?

74%$4/MTok or below

$0.0000$5

S&P 2027 year end price

8,171median

6,80010,400

Median 8,171Middle half 7,627 – 9,077

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Biggest moves today

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?$765 >99% ▲ 87

Decided soon

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 20?$771.33 Closes today 4:00 PM ET
S&P 500 Daily Up/Down (Oct 20, 2026)46% Closes today 4:00 PM ET
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?$767.50 For Mon 4:00 PM ET

Prices these markets are about

Price it is about	Last	Today	Markets
Tesla, Inc.TSLA	375.64	+2.06%	34
Crude OilCL=F	96.25	−2.32%	16
USOUSO	158.52	−1.42%	16
Alphabet Inc.GOOGL	342.31	−0.54%	112
Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN	263.47	+0.39%	62
NVIDIA CorporationNVDA	217.22	+0.06%	71
Microsoft CorporationMSFT	530.51	−0.56%	49
Meta Platforms, Inc.META	692.60	−1.82%	71
Apple Inc.AAPL	340.55	−0.70%	28
GasolineRB=F	2.9955	−3.52%	6

Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.