Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)
92%chance▲ 1
Install
How low will the S&P get this year? (2026)
The odds
9%6,300 or below
S&P 500 now 7,690.73 +0.41% - Falls to 6,3009%
- Falls to 6,2008%
- Falls to 6,1006%
- Falls to 6,0006%
- Falls to 5,9003%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5,900 or below | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 356.5K | |
| 6,000 or below | 6% | 4¢ | 8¢ | $12.05 | 152.7K | |
| 6,100 or below | 6% | 4¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 85.5K | |
| 6,200 or below | 8% | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 107.9K | |
| 6,300 or below | 9% | 8¢ | 10¢ | $9.80 | 221.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All indexes ›S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
$767.50median
$745$805
Median $767.50Middle half $766.25 – $768.75
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
$774.63high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $774.63 and as low as $760.08.
- Reaches $770>99%
- Reaches $77546%
- Falls to $76581%
- Falls to $76050%
Already reached: ↑ $765
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
$779.34high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $779.34 and as low as $754.76.
- Reaches $770>99%
- Reaches $78047%
- Falls to $76064%
- Falls to $75037%
Already reached: ↑ $780, ↑ $770, ↓ $760, ↑ $770, ↑ $770, ↓ $770
S&P close price end of 2026?
7,834median
3,8009,200
Median 7,834Middle half 7,440 – 8,060
S&P 500 Futures Price (Oct 19, 2026)
30%Above 7,225
7,2008,075
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.