When will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000? (S&P 500 Index - 8000)

Kalshi Finance › Indexes Closes Mar 1, 2027 · $311 today · $6.9K traded · $3.3K at stake · prices read 17 min ago

The odds

Feb 13, 2027even chance by

Before Nov 1, 202612%▲ 8
Before Dec 1, 202634%▲ 19
Before Jan 1, 202734%
Before Feb 1, 202734%▼ 59
Before Mar 1, 202774%

How the odds have moved

Before Nov 1, 2026: 24% on Oct 20, 12% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 21, 7 PM ETBefore Nov 1, 2026: 24% → 50%
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise as AI stocks reboundEconomies.com · 3 days ago
- S&P 500: Top 15 Stocks Hit Record 46.7% ShareBlockchain.News · 4 days ago
- The S&P 500 Would Be Flat Without Tech StocksYahoo Finance · 3 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Sep 1, 2026	1%				$100.00	64.00
Before Oct 1, 2026	1%				$100.00	5.8K
Before Nov 1, 2026	12%	▲ 8		13¢	$7.69	16.5K
Before Dec 1, 2026	34%	▲ 19	18¢	53¢	$1.89	5.4K
Before Jan 1, 2027	34%		30¢	46¢	$2.17	4.0K
Before Feb 1, 2027	34%	▼ 59	15¢	85¢	$1.18	2.0K
Before Mar 1, 2027	74%		69¢	94¢	$1.06	271

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: S&P 500, stocks, S&P Index

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Investors look to earnings to reset the bull market. The key level to watch on the S&P 500CNBC · 4 days agoIn a previous life, when I routinely shut down New York City bars, the end of Daylight Saving Time was an annual bonus, as 2am on a Saturday night instantly became 1am, leaving three more hours until closing time. The financial markets now…
S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise as AI stocks reboundEconomies.com · 3 days agoThe benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes rose on Monday as artificial intelligence-related stocks recovered from last week's sharp selloff, while declining oil prices provided additional support to markets ahead of major…
The S&P 500 Would Be Flat Without Tech StocksYahoo Finance · 3 days agoThe tech trade is back on top, with the sector leading market gains. Oops, something went wrong U.S. markets close in 24m The S&P 500 Would Be Flat Without Tech Stocks The tech trade is back on top, with the sector leading market gains…
S&P 500: Top 15 Stocks Hit Record 46.7% ShareBlockchain.News · 4 days agoBlockchain News S&P 500: Top 15 Stocks Hit Record 46.7% Share The Kobeissi Letter reports the 15 largest S&P 500 stocks now account for a record 46.7% of the index’s market value compared to 27.2% in the 2000 dot-com bubble, with Nvidia…
10 S&P 500 Stocks Seeing The Biggest Estimate Hikes Ahead Of EarningsYahoo Finance · 3 days agoThe S&P 500 stocks getting the heftiest EPS upgrades have something in common. Oops, something went wrong U.S. markets close in 4h 30m 10 S&P 500 Stocks Seeing The Biggest Estimate Hikes Ahead Of Earnings The S&P 500 stocks getting the…
S&P 500 Today LIVE: Index Climbs 0.51% as Tech Stocks Rebound, Oil Prices Ease and Investors Track Netflix, SpaceX, Apple & Nvidia Earnings | Check Top Gainers-Losers, Why S&P 500 Is Higher TodayThe Sunday Guardian · 3 days agoS&P 500 increased by 39.25 points or 0.51% to close at 7,751.82. Stocks related to technology sector were up for S&P 500; however, there were great differences in performance among different firms. Super Micro Computer increased by 10.16%…
S&P 500 Index: Chip Stocks Slide Again as the Dow Leads Earnings RotationFXEmpire · 4 days agoTuesday’s market has a different feel from Monday’s rebound. The Dow is doing the lifting. The Nasdaq is barely holding a gain, and the chip group is back under pressure. Micron, Sandisk, Seagate, Intel and AMD are all lower. CoreWeave is…
The S&P 500 Is Up More Than 10% This Year: But Nearly 40% of S&P 500 Stocks Are Down 20% From Their Highs.inkl · 4 days agoinkl The S&P 500 Is Up More Than 10% This Year: But Nearly 40% of S&P 500 Stocks Are Down 20% From Their Highs. MarketWatch's report puts nearly four in 10 of the benchmark's constituent stocks in what investors commonly describe as…
Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab: the lowest-fee S&P 500 funds in 2026Quartz · 3 days agoA side-by-side comparison of the lowest-expense-ratio S&P 500 funds and ETFs available in 2026, ranked by cost The list that follows ranks the lowest-cost S&P 500 trackers available this year by what they charge, with mutual funds and ETFs…
S&P 500 Closes Up 0.46% as Nasdaq Leads the Market Higher24/7 Wall St. · 3 days agoAs seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on October 21, 2026. Tech is still carrying this market: the Nasdaq's 0.94% gain doubled the S&P 500's advance. Breadth like that keeps the record-chasing trade intact heading into the next earnings…
This Stock Is Worst Performer In S&P 500 TodayInvestor's Business Daily · 4 days agoGeneral Motors also announced a $20 billion stock repurchase program. The post This Stock Is Worst Performer In S&P 500 Today appeared first on Investor's Business Daily. General Motors (GM) was Tuesday's worst-performing S&P 500 stock…
S&P 500 Slips as 71% of Stocks Rise in Broad RotationTechStock² · 4 days agoNew York, October 20, 2026, 09:50 (EDT) The S&P 500 slipped 0.15% to 7,679.22 shortly before 9:50 a.m. EDT. Yet 357 of its 503 securities were higher at 9:34. The mismatch exposed a rotation, not a broad retreat. The Nasdaq Composite fell…

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Finance › Indexes

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?

$772.50high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $772.50 and as low as $757.50.

Reaches $770>99%
Reaches $775<1%

Falls to $765>99%
Falls to $760>99%

Already reached: ↑ $765

Finance › Indexes

Nasdaq 100 Futures Price (Oct 23, 2026)

29,218median

27,80030,300

Median 29,218

Finance › Indexes

S&P 500 Futures Price (Oct 23, 2026)

36%Above 7,275

7,2507,925

Finance › Indexes

IBOVESPA closing level on Oct 26, 2026

212,824median

189,000221,000

Median 212,824Middle half 200,664 – 216,545

Finance › Indexes

Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)

91%chance▲ 1

Finance › Indexes

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

$776.20high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $776.20 and as low as $749.83.

Reaches $770>99%
Reaches $78019%

Falls to $760>99%
Falls to $75051%

Already reached: ↑ $780, ↑ $770, ↓ $760, ↑ $770, ↑ $770, ↓ $770

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onGoogle Finance

Trading closesMar 1, 2027 12:00 AM ET

Traded$6.9K (34,048 contracts)

Today$311

This week$6.9K

At stake$3.3K

In the news189 headlines today, 3,544 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the value of the S&P 500 Index is above $8,000 at any point after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.