IBOVESPA closing level on Oct 26, 2026

Kalshi Finance › Indexes Closes today 4:00 PM ET · $1.7K today · $4.1K traded · $2.1K at stake · prices read 12 min ago

The odds

46%At least 190,000 points

189,000221,000

How the odds have moved

At least 190,000 points: 87% on Oct 20, 46% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Why it moved

Oct 25, 11 PM ETAt least 190,000 points: 90% → 47%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
At least 190,000 points	46%	▼ 38	9¢	73¢	$1.37	2.0K
At least 191,000 points	18%	▼ 77	9¢	65¢	$1.54	407
At least 192,000 points	18%	▼ 64	5¢	68¢	$1.47	365
At least 193,000 points	18%	▼ 54	4¢	63¢	$1.59	1.6K
At least 194,000 points	17%	▼ 72	4¢	29¢	$3.45	5.1K
At least 195,000 points	17%	▼ 65	2¢	61¢	$1.64	1.6K
At least 196,000 points	17%	▼ 87	3¢	65¢	$1.54	1.5K
At least 197,000 points	17%	▼ 72	2¢	69¢	$1.45	470
At least 198,000 points	17%	▼ 70	2¢	44¢	$2.27	1.1K
At least 199,000 points	17%	▼ 82	2¢	25¢	$4.00	1.9K
At least 200,000 points	17%	▼ 70	2¢	67¢	$1.49	415
At least 201,000 points	17%		2¢	19¢	$5.26	444
At least 202,000 points	17%		2¢	15¢	$6.67	169
At least 203,000 points	7%	▼ 61	2¢	11¢	$9.09	862
At least 204,000 points	6%		2¢	10¢	$10.00
At least 205,000 points	5%	▼ 72	2¢	8¢	$12.50	1.1K
At least 206,000 points	5%	▼ 82	1¢	10¢	$10.00	1.4K
At least 207,000 points	5%	▼ 72	1¢	13¢	$7.69	1.5K
At least 208,000 points	5%	▼ 77	1¢	4¢	$25.00	9.5K
At least 209,000 points	5%	▼ 70	1¢	10¢	$10.00	1.2K
At least 210,000 points	5%	▼ 69	1¢	13¢	$7.69	755
At least 211,000 points	4%	▼ 65	2¢	5¢	$20.00	3.2K
At least 212,000 points	4%	▼ 75	2¢	6¢	$16.67	4.2K
At least 213,000 points	4%	▼ 70	1¢	8¢	$12.50	1.7K
At least 214,000 points	1%			1¢	$100.00	3.9K
At least 215,000 points	1%	▼ 69		1¢	$100.00	13.2K
At least 216,000 points	1%	▼ 20		1¢	$100.00	12.4K
At least 217,000 points	1%	▼ 13		1¢	$100.00	11.1K
At least 218,000 points	1%	▼ 18		1¢	$100.00	19.3K
At least 219,000 points	1%	▼ 21		1¢	$100.00	30.8K
At least 220,000 points	1%	▼ 30		1¢	$100.00	4.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: IBOVESPA, Brazil

Search ›

Brazil election: Lula supporters celebrate victorybbc.com · 4 h agoBrazil's left-wing President Lula elected for fourth term, beating right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro. Tears and hugs as Lula supporters celebrate victory
Brazil votes in narrow presidential runoffsemafor.com · 6 h agoBrazil’s incumbent left-wing president faced off against his favored right-wing challenger Sunday in a narrow runoff election that will determine the direction of Latin America’s largest economy. If he wins, Flávio Bolsonaro would secure…
Brazil's Lula wins presidential election in runoff voteCNBC · 3 h agoCNBC’s Sri Jegarajah and JP Ong discuss what comes next for Brazil after Lula da Silva’s runoff victory. Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you. Sign up for free newsletters and get ... Brazil's Lula wins presidential…
Brazil election 2026: Live second round resultsthe Guardian · 9 h agoAfter a shock defeat in the first round, the incumbent Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is seeking a new term in a runoff with Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of his convicted predecessor Polls close at 17.00 BRT, 20.00 GMT, with…
Brazil's left-wing President Lula elected for fourth termNPR · 4 h agoSupporters of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva cheer as the results of Brazil's presidential runoff election are announced in São Paulo on Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026. Natacha Pisarenko/AP hide caption BRASILIA, Brazil — In a stunning…
Brazil election: Polls to remain open after transport disruptionbbc.com · 8 h agoThe country's Supreme Court issued a last-minute extension to voting hours after transport was disrupted in multiple cities. Follow our live coverage of the Brazilian election.
Brazil votes in tight runoff between Lula and BolsonaroCNBC · 10 h agoBrazilians voted Sunday in a tight runoff that could move Latin America's largest nation sharply rightward, bringing it closer to the United States amid a broader conservative shift across the region. The runoff pits leftist President Luiz…
Lula wins fourth term as Brazil’s president over Flávio Bolsonarothe Guardian · 4 h agoLeftist incumbent Lula stages historic comeback weeks after narrowly losing first round of election to Bolsonaro Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Brazilian president, has staged a dramatic election fightback, defeating his far-right…
Conservative wave hits roadblock in Brazil as Lula holds off Bolsonaro challengeFox News · 4 h agoFlavio Bolsonaro joined supporters in Santa Barbara D'Oeste to lead a motorcade. Polls in Brazil show a tight presidential race with incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Video: Reuters.) Bolsonaro narrowly won the first round on Oct. 4…
Brazil votes in tense presidential runoff between Lula and Flávio BolsonaroCBS News · 9 h agoOctober 25, 2026 / 3:52 PM EDT / AP Brazilians are voting in Sunday's polarizing presidential runoff between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, a contest that will determine whether the U.S. will…
Lula wins fourth term in Brazil but faces hostile Congress and divided countryBBC News · 4 h agoLula has now won four presidential elections Brazil's veteran left-wing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has been re-elected after a bitterly fought campaign, beating his right-wing rival Flávio Bolsonaro. It is Lula's fourth win in a…
U.S. influence in Latin America at stake in runoff election in BrazilNPR · 7 h agoA polarizing presidential election runoff in Latin America's largest economy and biggest democracy pits leftist Lula da Silva's legacy against Trump ally Flavio Bolsonaro, son of the former Brazilian president. U.S. influence in Latin…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onTrading View

Trading closesOct 26, 2026 4:00 PM ET

Traded$4.1K (137,878 contracts)

Today$1.7K

This week$4K

At stake$2.1K

In the news296 headlines today, 1,744 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the value of IBOVESPA (IBOV), in native index points is at least 190,000 index points at the official B3 closing observation on October 26, 2026 (Brazil trading date), then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions